One Year On, How鈥檚 The Iran Nuke Deal Doing?
The nuclear deal, signed in July 2015, has been a game changer for Iran.Yet implementing the deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), has been rocky鈥攁t best.
The nuclear deal, signed in July 2015, has been a game changer for Iran.Yet implementing the deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), has been rocky鈥攁t best.
The nuclear deal, signed in July 2015, has been a game changer for Iran.
A year later, the Islamic Republic is again a player on the international circuit. Top Iranian leaders have Europe, Asia, Africa and Latin America. Tehran has hosted a steady stream of heads of state or foreign ministers, many from the West, interested in upgrading relations. It even won some praise for 鈥渢ransparency measures which go beyond Iran鈥檚 obligations鈥 from the International Atomic Energy Agency, the .
Yet implementing the deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), has been rocky鈥攁t best.
The challenges are often based on disparate interpretations of what the deal requires, particularly in Tehran and Washington. Both capitals allege that the other is violating the spirit of the historic accord, one of the most important non-proliferation agreements in more than a quarter century.
Tehran that the United States is not doing enough to European banks and businesses they can now legally deal with Iran鈥攚ithout fear of U.S. penalties. 鈥淭he United States needs to do way more. They have to send a message that doing business with Iran will not cost them,鈥 Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told in April 2016.
Washington that it has publicly condoned re-engagement, including talks with major European . Kerry met with nine from leading European banks in May. 鈥淓uropean banks, as long as it鈥檚 not a designated entity, are absolutely free to open accounts for Iran, trade, exchange money, facilitate a legitimate business agreement, bankroll it, lend money,鈥 he .
Washington is also annoyed with Tehran over its ballistic missile tests, which are inconsistent with a U.N. prohibiting 鈥渁ny activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons.鈥 Its tests have increased pressure in Washington for new sanctions on Iran.
The dispute over sanctions is just one obstacle to Iran鈥檚 interaction with the world. The Islamic Republic remains on the Financial Action Task Force鈥檚 of countries linked to money laundering and financing terrorism.
The nuclear deal has also not helped to ease tensions between Iran and the region鈥攐r won Tehran new allies.
The Islamic Republic also needs to reform its financial sector to comply with international standards, the first step in winning foreign interaction, sales and investment. 鈥淚t is time for a plan of action on the economy,鈥 said David Lipton of the International Monetary Fund, during a 2016 to Tehran. 鈥淵our ultimate success depends on what you do at home.鈥
Secretary of State John Kerry and have maintained the working relationship forged during the grueling 2013-2015 nuclear talks. The two have met at least nine times in the year since the deal was finalized. They have also communicated by telephone and reportedly by 鈥攁 significant shift, even though Tehran and Washington still do not have formal relations, which ruptured in 1980.
鈥淭here鈥檚 no question that it opened up the opportunity for communication,鈥 Kerry , in June 2016, of the nuclear deal. The two envoys have expanded discussion to other hot topics in the Middle East.
At the same time, Tehran and Washington both face domestic opposition to further U.S.-Iran engagement. has repeatedly over the past year that Washington is trying to infiltrate Iran. He has cautioned against on regional issues too.
鈥淲hoever trusts in the United States is committing a big mistake and will be hit with a slap by them,鈥 he said in televised last month. 鈥淔irst they enter with a smile and (soft) language but later in practice they will not do what they should do and will not keep their commitment.鈥
In turn, U.S. lawmakers have introduced (but not always passed) new to penalize Iran for missile tests, support for terrorism and human rights abuses. Some legislation, such as the , could interfere with the nuclear deal if passed with a veto-proof majority. The of the Iran Sanctions Act, which expires at the end of 2016, would also be interpreted in Tehran as a sign of ill-will.
A thaw in relations has been further slowed by Iran鈥檚 human rights violations. Tehran鈥檚 reentry into the world community has not changed its practices at home.
In 2015, the Islamic Republic executed nearly 1,000 people, the number since 1989. Over the past year, political dissidents have been denied due process or imprisoned for vaguely-defined criminal charges, including 鈥渁cting against national security,鈥 according to human rights . Religious and ethnic minorities have faced .
Despite his own campaign promises, President Hassan Rouhani has done virtually nothing to improve the plight of women, who have in marriage, divorce, inheritance and child custody鈥攁nd also face harassment over their dress in public.
Artists and journalists have experienced censorship. Iran is also 鈥渁 source, transit, and destination country for men, women, and children subjected to sex trafficking and forced labor,鈥 the State Department in June.
A year later, the Islamic Republic is again a player on the international circuit.
The nuclear deal has opened the way for greater Iranian inclusion on regional affairs. In November 2015, Iran agreed to take part in a U.S.-backed to launch Syrian peace talks. For decades, Tehran has provided strong political, financial and military support for the Assad dynasty, but it has shown a recent to at least explore political solutions. Over the past year, Zarif has repeatedly said there are no military solutions to Syria鈥檚 five-year civil war.
In early 2016, Iran participated in meetings of the In June 2016, Kerry and Zarif met in Oslo to a wider ceasefire to facilitate dialogue about a political transition. 鈥淚 do believe the conversation I had with Zarif indicates to me possibilities for how this could be achieved,鈥 Kerry said.
Iran shares the West鈥檚 interest in defeating ISIS, which at one point in 2014 had marched so deep into Iraq that ISIS were less than 20 miles from Iran鈥檚 borders. Iran is the world鈥檚 largest predominantly Shiite country; the Islamic State is based on a radical interpretation of Sunni Islam.
鈥淚 think the Iranians have a vested interest in doing what they can to prevent the growth of ISIS in that area, because ISIS has a very strong anti-Shia dimension to it, so there are some things that the Iranians can do and even some things that the Iranians have done that have helped to inhibit the further growth of ISIS,鈥 CIA Director John Brennan said, on the , in June. 鈥淥n balance,鈥 he added, 鈥淚 think they have to do more.鈥
Overall, Tehran has not changed its core policies. The State Department鈥檚 2016 faults Iran for using its Quds Force, an elite wing of the Revolutionary Guards, to 鈥渋mplement foreign policy goals, provide cover for intelligence operations, and create instability in the Middle East.鈥
The CIA chief last month, 鈥淭here are a lot of things that Iran does that tends to facilitate terrorism, and they still are the leading state sponsor of terrorism in the world.鈥
Iran鈥檚 ballistic missile tests鈥攊n October 2015 and March 2016鈥攈ave been particularly provocative. Iranian claims its missiles are only for defensive purposes. 鈥渃alls upon Iran not to test ballistic missiles that were ' designed ' to be capable鈥 That word took me about seven months to negotiate, so everybody knew what it meant,鈥 Zarif in March.
But the missiles are inherently capable of delivering a nuclear payload, according to former U.N. weapons inspector . The Treasury Department has subsequently imposed new on suppliers involved in Tehran鈥檚 missile program.
The nuclear deal has also not helped to ease tensions between Iran and the region鈥攐r won Tehran new allies. In August, shortly after the JCPOA agreement, President Obama told that one indirect consequence of the deal might be 鈥渢hat Iran starts making different decisions that are less offensive to its neighbors, that it tones down the rhetoric in terms of its virulent opposition to Israel.鈥
U.S.-Iran cooperation beyond the nuclear deal seems limited, at best, for the near future.
But the rivalry has only intensified between Shiite Iran and Saudi Arabia, a major Sunni power and the birthplace of Islam. In September, more than 450 Iranians died after a erupted in Mecca, during the Hajj pilgrimage. In January, Saudi Arabia executed a dissident Shiite , sparking demonstrations in Tehran that led to the of the Saudi embassy. Riyadh then broke off diplomatic and economic ties with Tehran. The chasm deepened.
Iran鈥檚 rhetoric about Israel has not shifted either. In May, Tehran hosted a Holocaust cartoon . In his televised address last month, Khamenei 鈥渢he US, the evil Britain and the damned and cancerous Zionist regime. These are the main enemies.鈥 The nuclear deal has even forged a de facto anti-Iran alliance between Saudi Arabia and Israel, countries both wary of the agreement.
On the eve of the nuclear deal鈥檚 first anniversary, Kerry said predicting what happens next with Iran is 鈥渢oo fraught with too many variables.鈥 But he , 鈥淥ur hope is that we can continue to open the aperture.鈥 Progress on other issues depends on the larger fate of Iran鈥檚 feisty revolution.
鈥淓verybody understands that Iran is going through certain change,鈥 he at the Aspen Ideas Festival. 鈥淧resident Rouhani and Foreign Minister Zarif have a vision 鈥 that was carried out in the context of sitting down with us and negotiating. There were those in Iran who didn鈥檛 want to do that. We鈥檙e prepared to do that again if we have to.鈥
Over the next year, the deal is likely to remain contentious, partly because both countries have presidential elections. Rouhani faces a potentially tough reelection bid next June. Although he remains popular, public opinion indicate disillusionment because Iranians have not felt the anticipated benefits from the nuclear deal. The U.S. presidential campaign has in turn sharpened alarm鈥攁nd rhetoric鈥攊n Tehran about the fate of the nuclear deal.
In March, presumptive Republican candidate Donald J. Trump , 鈥淢y number one priority is to dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran.鈥 Khamenei responded, in June, by that if the next U.S. president tears up the nuclear deal, Iran will 鈥渟et fire to it.鈥
Others are saber-rattling too. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, chairman of Parliament鈥檚 Committee on National Security and Foreign Policy, also that Iran would ramp up uranium enrichment鈥攖he fuel cycle for a nuclear weapon鈥攊f the six major powers fail to meet their obligations.
The nuclear deal only took one of several issues off the table. Even if he is re-elected, Rouhani has limited powers to address the other flashpoints. The judiciary鈥攁 separate wing of government linked to human rights abuses鈥攊s still controlled by hardliners. Its chief, Sadegh Larijani, is appointed by the Supreme Leader.
The Revolutionary Guards, who report to the supreme leader, have also evolved into their own bloc of political and economic power. They manage Iran鈥檚 relationships with armed groups abroad. Khamenei, the ultimate arbiter of Iranian policy, has shown no sign of reversing his decades-long support for Hezbollah, Palestinian groups and others, let alone his intense distrust of the United States.
As a result, U.S.-Iran cooperation beyond the nuclear deal seems limited, at best, for the near future. The pendulum, for now, is swinging back.
The opinions expressed here are solely those of the author.
This article originally appeared in
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