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The on Sweden's evolving strategic role is yet another timely reminder of the growing prominence of geopolitical thinking amongst the country鈥檚 elites and decision makers.  It鈥檚 why General Micael Byd茅n, Sweden鈥檚 Supreme Commander, has made a remarkable request:  to establish a new military unit in the Arctic city of Kiruna.

On the one hand, the rationale behind General Byd茅n鈥檚 proposal can be seen  as a sober response to the Nordic nation鈥檚 changed geo-strategic reality. Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine and Sweden鈥檚 subsequent decision to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO justify such re-posturing for two reasons.  First, given the current level of its Armed Forces鈥� combat readiness, Sweden may not be able to implement its total defence strategy, let alone aid another NATO Ally should it become subject to Russian aggression.

Second, stunned by to its NATO membership Swedish decision makers are fully aware of the importance of showcasing their country鈥檚 benefit to the Alliance. One way of to do that is to highlight Sweden鈥檚 resources and status as an Arctic nation. Swedish membership would enable NATO to play a more direct role in the Arctic鈥檚 fast intensifying strategic environment. This could become a bargaining chip in the hands of Swedish diplomats and officials during their membership deliberations with other members of the Alliance.

As valid as such reasonings are, they only paint a half, and therefore inaccurate, picture of the Swedish strategic thinking towards the Arctic and the country鈥檚 subtle, yet indisputable, rising importance to transatlantic security. While it is true that the Swedish Supreme Commander is motivated by his country鈥檚 pending NATO membership and Russia鈥檚 irredentism in his call for the establishment of a permanent military presence in the Arctic, his request has more to do with Northern Sweden鈥檚 emerging importance as a key supplier of three resources:  critical minerals, a space hub, and an ever-increasing number of data centres.

Sweden鈥檚 Arctic region, and specifically the city of Kiruna, has played a key role in Europe鈥檚 industrial development and resource security thanks to its sizable endowment of iron ore. The state-owned mining giant, LKAB, approximately 80% of the iron ore in Europe, while its recently launched ReeMAP project could soon turn the company into a major producer of rare earth elements and phosphorus in the EU. The strategic significance of this project lies in its potential to drastically reduce the EU鈥檚 dependency on external producers of critical raw materials, thus boosting the European defence industrial base and its green transition while simultaneously expanding the continent鈥檚 overall resiliency to external supply shocks.

Most importantly, however, of the discovery of Europe鈥檚 largest deposit of rare earth in Northern Sweden is set to elevate the country鈥檚 geo-strategic standing, adding a critical layer of importance to its continued stability. At a time when China鈥檚 dominant position as a supplier of rare earth materials is considered a , this discovery is a major geopolitical plus for Europe and Sweden. It enables the continent to take a major step towards self-sufficiency in it is green transition and the various industries associated with it, including the construction of wind turbines and batteries, while it allows Sweden to significantly punch above its weight in European and transatlantic affairs.

Besides its role as one of Europe鈥檚 main suppliers of critical raw materials, Sweden鈥檚 Arctic region is also home to Europe鈥檚 first, and only, orbital satellite launch complex, Esrange. The strategic significance of Esrange, put broadly, can be discussed from three different angles. First, there is the near total absence of Europe in the between the United States, China, and Russia. Europe has been unable to match, let alone compete with, the American, Chinese, and Russian capabilities due to a dire lack of adequate EU-based resources and facilities. With Esrange fully operational, however, this state of affairs is set to change in that the Arctic based spaceport will 鈥溾��.

Secondly, the space complex is poised to significantly contribute to both Sweden and the EU鈥檚 efforts at monitoring and addressing national, regional, and global effects of climate change. Data from space based satellites to help scientists and researchers to map the changing patterns of environmental degradation more accurately, an ability that has far reaching implications for city planning, agricultural planning, and, indeed, crisis responses.

Finally, space technologies are deemed essential if states are to secure their commercial and strategic interests in the Arctic. Given its harsh environment, lack of adequate infrastructure, and dispersed population centres, secure communication, surveillance, and safe passage are all largely on space technologies. Not only can satellite services cater to such needs but they could also catalyse increased cooperation amongst partner nations by, among other things, encouraging burden sharing agreements and frameworks between both civilian and military authorities.

Also at play is the Swedish government's long term for turning the country's northern regions into a major data centre hub. The social media giant Facebook has been operating a data centre in Lule氓 since 2017 while both national and regional authorities are actively seeking to lure in more multinational tech companies and data centre operators into Sweden; an initiative that has led to the emergence of a soft competition between Sweden and its two other Nordic neighbours, Finland and Norway.

Facebook's data center in Lule氓, Sweden. Courtesy of Facebook / Mark Zuckerberg. 

From an industry , Northern Sweden, including the Arctic region of Norrbotten, is an ideal location for operating data centres, not least because Sweden has one of the lowest electricity prices in Europe while its electricity grids tend to have high redundancy and capacity rates. Added to these benefits are the country鈥檚 highly developed digital infrastructure, its tech savvy workforce, and a long tradition of sustainable practices.

Yet, the presence of more data centres is a double edged sword. If data is the , then it is reasonable to characterise data centres as refineries of the future. Playing host to a large number of data centres, therefore, accrue both commercial and strategic benefits to the Swedish state. As countries vie for greater access to data, the mere presence of data centres turns Sweden into a prime target for both increased cyber-attacks and more traditional forms of offensive practices including missile attacks. Put together, Sweden needs to be able to assure investors and operators that it has the adequate means and resources in place in order to be able to ensure the safety and security of these 鈥榬efineries鈥�. Such fulfilment, in turn, requires the articulation of a more nuanced cybersecurity strategy and a stronger military presence in the country鈥檚 northern most regions.

Seen this way, it is crystal clear that Sweden鈥檚 Arctic is on the fast track to become a critical node in the broader transatlantic geo-strategic network. Faced with Turkey鈥檚 opposition to its NATO membership, Swedish officials and negotiators are better advised to alter the talking points from a purely technical deliberation into a more strategic one. As valuable as Swedish intelligence and military assets are, they are not, by any stretch of the imagination, mission critical to NATO鈥檚 force structure. Sweden鈥檚 Arctic based assets, however, are. As such, the focus of future membership talks must hinge more on the disadvantages of not having a resource, space and data hub in the Alliance and less on Sweden鈥檚 tactical knowhow.