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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an announced today he will drop his country鈥檚 opposition to Sweden joining the NATO Alliance. Sweden  for NATO membership on May 18, 2022, ending two centuries of military nonalignment. Finland applied alongside Sweden and, however鈥檚 membership has stalled due to opposition from T眉rkiye and Hungary. With the upcoming NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 11 and 12 and with the stated goal of welcoming Finland and Sweden as full members at this summit, the pressure for Sweden to join the alliance has grown in recent weeks. Now that T眉rkiye has indicated it will support Sweden鈥檚 membership, it is worth exploring Sweden鈥檚 thorny road to NATO membership and unpacking the key issues that led to T眉rkiye and Hungary blocking Sweden from becoming NATO鈥檚 32nd member. 

Gaining T眉rkiye鈥檚 support for Sweden鈥檚 NATO membership has been a top agenda item for the alliance for more than a year. At the last NATO Summit in Madrid, T眉rkiye and the two newest NATO applicants signed a  for Sweden and Finland to end their arms embargoes and address T眉rkiye鈥檚 national security concerns. In the last year, Sweden has tried to address Turkish concerns by  its 2019  to ban weapon exports to T眉rkiye. In response to Turkish accusations of Sweden  members of the Kurdish PKK 鈥� classified as a terrorist organization by T眉rkiye as well as  and  鈥� Sweden  its Terrorist Crime Act, which expanded the definition of terrorist activities. In the weeks leading up to the NATO Summit, a Swedish court also  a man for supporting the PKK, the first sentence of its kind. Recently, the dispute became even more complicated. Multiple Quran burnings have taken place in Sweden, with the latest one on . The burnings caused considerable fury in T眉rkiye and the wider Islamic world 鈥� with the Organization of Islamic Cooperation  them. On the other hand, the government鈥檚 denouncement of the burnings as Islamophobic received a domestic backlash from Swedes concerned about preserving free speech. According to the Swedish police, more  are to be expected in the days ahead. 

In a  announcing the breakthrough, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced this would happen as soon as possible, but it is clear that Sweden will fully join the NATO Alliance only in the weeks after the Vilnius Summit. 

These actions ultimately appear to have been enough for Sweden to pave its way into NATO, likely after the Summit in Vilnius. Next, T眉rkiye鈥檚 parliament will need to ratify Sweden鈥檚 accession. In a  announcing the breakthrough, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced this would happen as soon as possible, but it is clear that Sweden will fully join the NATO Alliance only in the weeks after the Vilnius Summit. During the course of negotiations, President Erdo臒an made new demands today for  T眉rkiye鈥檚 stalled EU membership negotiations, which have effectively been on hold since 2018. It is unlikely that the negotiations on EU membership will be restarted, but this exchange makes it clear that close cooperation with the EU remains a priority for T眉rkiye. 鈥淪weden will actively  efforts to reinvigorate T眉rkiye鈥檚 EU accession process, including modernization of the EU-T眉rkiye Customs Union and visa liberalization鈥�, shifting Sweden from a vocal critic to supporter of T眉rkiye鈥檚 EU accession.

Although much attention has been on T眉rkiye鈥檚 opposition to Sweden鈥檚 NATO membership, Hungary has also delayed ratification. The Hungarian Parliament once again postponed the vote on . Hungarian government spokesman Zoltan Kovacs has  there is 鈥渁n ample amount of grievances鈥� for withholding Sweden鈥檚 accession, criticizing it for being 鈥渞epeatedly keen to bash Hungary'' and 鈥渦sing [its] political influence to harm Hungarian interests".  In the long run, however, Hungary is unlikely to be a significant obstacle for Swedish membership; Hungary dropped its opposition to Finnish membership  T眉rkiye gave its consent. Recently the Hungarian Minister for Foreign Affairs  they will do the same for Sweden.

The backdrop for Hungary鈥檚 reticence are Swedish  about Prime Minister Viktor Orb谩n undermining Hungarian democracy and the rule of law. 

Furthermore, Sweden鈥檚 relationship with T眉rkiye may still be rocky, even with Swedish accession into NATO unblocked. But it is a major step forward for the Alliance that T眉rkiye and Sweden found a common understanding, especially since the conflict has led to questioning of the  鈥� a serious hit to the credibility of NATO. How to ensure NATO鈥檚 door remains open will be an issue for Allies in the post-Vilnius era.