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The contrast between the Brazilian Foreign Ministry鈥檚 criticism of the crackdown on protesters in Kiev and the cautious statement released as protests spread in Venezuela was highlighted in commentary published in the Brazilian media last week that was critical of Dilma Rousseff鈥檚 timid foreign policy, in contrast to the active diplomacy during the Lula administration. 

鈥漈he situation in Venezuela is different from Ukraine,鈥� Rousseff said, defending her government鈥檚 posture. She noted that Venezuela has achieved important social gains in democracy for the poorest sectors of the population and that those gains should be preserved. Referring to the protests, the Brazilian president added that 鈥淏razil supports freedom of expression,鈥� stressing that 鈥渨e believe, under any circumstance, that dialogue, consensus, and democracy building are better than any kind of institutional rupture.鈥�

Most observers in Brazil, including those who oppose Bras铆lia鈥檚 often accommodating attitude vis-脿-vis the Bolivarian governments of South America, agree that the conflict in Venezuela is unlikely to lead to an outcome similar to the Ukrainian crisis, which resulted in a change of government.  Even critics of chavismo view opposition leader Leopoldo L贸pez鈥檚 strategy of forcing a show down with President Nicol谩s Maduro as naive, dangerous, and potentially counterproductive.  鈥淲ere it to succeed, it would likely lead to a military intervention and to less鈥攏ot more鈥攄emocracy in Venezuela,鈥� says one analyst who follows events in Caracas closely and has no sympathy for either Maduro or Rousseff. This analyst, reflecting a broadly shared view in Brazil, said that the more measured approach of the governor of the state of Miranda, Henrique Capriles, who narrowly lost the presidential election to Maduro last year, is preferable. With the Venezuelan economy rapidly deteriorating and divisions emerging in the chavista camp, Capriles is betting on a recall election which, according the country鈥檚 constitution, can take place mid-way through Maduro鈥檚 term. Such an institutional path to regime change in Caracas would be widely supported in the region.

As in the past, the Workers Party鈥檚 Bolivarian inclinations, regional stability, and the protection of Brazil鈥檚 sizable business interests in Venezuela remain the drivers of Bras铆lia's calculations regarding the turmoil in its neighboring Bolivarian republic. Obviously, Brazil鈥檚 capacity for regional leadership, which has not been much in evidence lately, will be severely tested if President Nicol谩s Maduro fails to bring the situation under control without resorting to civil rights violations, tactics which are already causing divisions in the chavista camp.

Rousseff may find guidance and inspiration in the actions of her two immediate predecessors.

In 2002, during his last year in power, former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso denounced an attempted coup against then-President Hugo Ch谩vez as a violation of the continent鈥檚 democratic charter adopted the previous year. In early 2003, a recently-inaugurated President Luiz In谩cio Lula da Silva led the creation of a 鈥淕roup of Friends鈥� of Venezuela, which helped stabilize the situation. In 2008, Lula acted decisively to help defuse a domestic crisis in Bolivia, undermining a strategy of confrontation pushed by Hugo Ch谩vez. The current Venezuelan crisis seems bound to require Brazil to articulate a collective response through UNASUR (the Union of South American Nations). The association has issued statements urging Venezuelans to seek solutions to the tension that preserve the constitutional order. Collective action does not, however, seem imminent.  Diverging opinions have surfaced within the Brazilian government regarding the nature of the Venezuelan crisis and how to approach it. The sympathy of part of left to the Maduro government is not amply shared in society. On February 19, the daily Folha de S茫o Paulo reported that a Mercosur communiqu茅 issued days before describing the protests as 鈥渃riminal actions by violent groups bent on spreading intolerance鈥� caused consternation in Itamaraty, the foreign ministry, where it was seen as unbalanced and unhelpful to crisis resolution. According to Brazilian Foreign Minister Luiz Alberto Figueiredo, the Mercosur note was misinterpreted. 鈥淲e repudiate all types of violence and intolerance, independent of its origin,鈥� he said in an interview. 鈥淲e are for dialogue with the opposition in Venezuela." One key domestic factor in Dilma Rousseff calculations as the turmoil in Venezuela unfolds is the unpopularity among Brazilians of Bolivarian governments in general and of chavismo in particular.