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Prior to Russia鈥檚 2022 invasion of Ukraine, 99 percent of Moldova鈥檚 energy needs were met through a Kremlin-controlled pipeline. Two years later, Moldova has largely stopped buying Russian natural gas, it鈥檚 continuing to criticize Russian expansionist policies, and it鈥檚 on a path to becoming a full member of the EU.  

Few countries would appear to be more vulnerable to Russian pressure than the small, landlocked Republic of Moldova. Moldova is one of the in terms of its GDP, and it has long been reliant on Russian oil and gas to meet its energy needs. Russia has also been the largest market for one of Moldova鈥檚 most prized exports: its award-winning wines.  

Vladimir Putin has responded belligerently to Moldova鈥檚 criticism of his attacks on Ukraine. The Kremlin has reportedly mobilized its to try and weaken the government of President Maia Sandu and taken steps to ratchet up the economic heat on the Moldovan people. Kremlin-controlled energy company Gazprom has sharply to Moldova even as energy prices have been rising throughout Europe. Russia has also curtailed the importation of Moldovan agricultural products, .  

For what it鈥檚 worth, a small portion of Moldova, 鈥淭ransnistria,鈥� has claimed independence from the government in its capital Chi葯in膬u. While such status is not internationally recognized, Moscow treats Transnistria differently than the rest of Moldova. For example, Russia continues to supply energy to Transnistria to its residents, while claiming that such supplies must be paid by Chi葯in膬u. 

Moldova鈥檚 defiance comes with significant direct and indirect costs. By last winter, inflation in Moldova was , with households forced to use on covering their utility bills alone. In terms of indirect costs, the small Eastern European country has by 鈥渞eceived more refugees from Ukraine per capita than any other country worldwide.鈥� Because much of Moldova鈥檚 electricity is tied to Ukraine鈥檚 energy infrastructure, Russian attacks on Ukraine have also caused power outages in Moldova. If all that weren鈥檛 enough to increase anxieties among its 3.4 million or so residents, reports of military debris discovered along its border with Ukraine are a constant reminder of Russia鈥檚 military might. 

While few observers are surprised by Moscow鈥檚 efforts to punish the Sandu administration and other governments critical of its war on Ukraine, what has apparently surprised many鈥攊ncluding the Kremlin鈥攊s Moldova鈥檚 resilience and Europe鈥檚 resolve. Instead of turning away Ukrainian refugees and others fleeing Russia, President Sandu has granted them 鈥�. Instead of softening its public opposition to Kremlin policies in hopes of softening Putin鈥檚 weaponized energy policies, Moldova has taken natural gas purchases from Russia鈥檚 Gazprom. It has also begun construction of that will enable it to import electricity directly from Romania and other EU sources.   

European leaders have expressed their support for the pro-European leadership in Chi葯in膬u by moving to soften the burden of Moscow鈥檚 economic attacks. In mid-2023, the EU which 鈥減rovides temporary full trade liberalization for Moldovan agricultural products.鈥� In , the European Council announced the commencement of negotiations to enable Moldova to join the European Union. In response, President Sandu quickly announced plans for a 2024 which, assuming it passes, would enshrine in Moldova鈥檚 constitution a path towards EU membership. 

By most accounts, when Russia launched its invasion in February 2022, President Putin believed Ukraine could be captured in a matter of days. He also assumed his victory would put a halt to any neighbor鈥檚 efforts to more closely align with the West. Two years later, Moldova, one of Europe鈥檚 smallest and poorest countries, a country with a history of energy dependence on Russia, has begun talks to formally join the EU and publicly reaffirmed its position that Putin must be stopped for Moldova鈥檚 sake and that of all of Europe. 

To that, I鈥檒l raise a glass of Moldovan wine. 

This blog was researched with the assistance of Camila Guerrero.