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On July 1, exactly six months after Bolsonaro鈥檚 inauguration, the Brazil Institute held a discussion with Maur铆cio Moura and other experts on the Brazilian government鈥檚 performance in the first semester of 2019. The event also served to celebrate the release of A elei莽茫o disruptiva: Por que Bolsonaro venceu (The Disruptive Election: Why Bolsonaro Won), in which Maur铆cio Moura and Juliano Corbellini examine how a relatively unimportant, far-right congressman came to be president of Brazil, and what that means for the government and its agenda.

 Selected Quotes
 

Mauricio Moura

鈥淚n Brazil, I don鈥檛 know the exact number, but right now, we have around 14 million people unemployed, and another 15 million people that are in the informal sector as well, so this is a critical part of the government [of] Bolsonaro moving forward.鈥�

鈥淭he Bolsonaro style of communicating to the public is very similar to the Trump style. You never know what鈥檚 going to happen [in] the next tweet鈥�. He talks a lot to his base [and] he basically communicates to people that like him [and] that support him.鈥�

鈥淚 want to make a point about the relationship between the executive branch and the Congress. The bad news moving forward is that I don鈥檛 see, as of today, any political leadership from the presidency to [make] this relationship better.鈥�

Andrea Murta

鈥淗is relationship with other powers is a bit controversial. And if I would summarize what鈥檚 happening in Brazil in one sentence: Economic proposals are actually moving forward in spite of the government, and not because of the government.鈥�

鈥淏olsonaro has the luck, let鈥檚 say, of having sort of a shared agenda with the leaders of Congress. So Rodrigo Maia, the Speaker of the House, is not moving forward with pension reform to help Bolsonaro. He鈥檚 doing that because he believes he will help himself.鈥�

 鈥淚f you were to measure support for the social agenda of the Bolsonaro government, it鈥檚 very different. Both the House and the Senate have shown that they have little appreciation, at this point, for the most controversial behavioral points that Bolsonaro is proposing, which are important for his base of support.鈥�

Monica de Bolle

鈥淧ension reform is not going to transform Brazil鈥razil has a lot more problems than just these medium-term fiscal issues. When we look at the economy broadly, and when we see how growth has been very, very slow鈥his is a symptom of something else.鈥�

鈥淏razil is coming to the end of its demographic bonus; the time when you see the enlargement of the labor force and of the economically active population. And when you couple that with what鈥檚 happened to educational quality鈥hat you see is really very dramatic.鈥�

鈥淎ll of this taken together basically means that pension reform is a great thing, [but] it鈥檚 not going to bring growth back. Because there are a number of other things that we would need to do on the structural front to sort of face these issues鈥攖hese longer-term growth issues. And in addition to that鈥ou need to have some kind of bridge in the short term, especially if you鈥檙e facing these very high levels of unemployment.鈥�

鈥淭here are many things which are part of this agenda which are very important. One thing that鈥檚 sorely lacking is any mention鈥攁nd any idea鈥攁bout what to do with the social programs that currently exist, how to strengthen social safety nets in Brazil, and how to rebuild some of the social safety net that has been affected by the 2015-2016 recession.鈥�

鈥淎dvances that we鈥檝e made on environment, advances that we鈥檝e made on gender issues, advances that we鈥檝e made on indigenous rights, all of that. We can鈥檛 have a backsliding on these issues now, especially not with an economy that鈥檚 already weak.鈥�

Thiago de Arag茫o

鈥淥ne of the biggest problems produced by this administration so far, in my perception, is the continuous attempt to disqualify politics in general. Politics as a whole.鈥�

鈥淥nce the government gets the pension reform approved, we will invariably have an improved perception of the government from society. From there on, the government has two options and two choices. Whether the government will reorganize and have a peaceful dialogue with Congress, or the [government] will continue with a conflictive dialogue with Congress.鈥�

鈥淪o what we have is that the posture towards China is not a consensus within the administration. There are individuals, departments, and layers which are very pro-business with China. There are others that are against. There are others that believe you have to choose between the U.S. and China. And there are others that say, 鈥楲ook, we don鈥檛 need to choose. We can operate on two lines.鈥欌��

To purchase A elei莽茫o disruptiva: Por que Bolsonaro venceu, . 

Header Image by Antonio Cruz/ Ag锚ncia Brasil