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On January 17, President of the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies Rodrigo Maia opened a major conference on what many are calling Brazil鈥檚 most important political year since the reinstatement of democracy in the mid-1980s. Congressman Maia, part of a younger generation of politicians in Brazil, is a key actor in the stalled process of economic reforms central to the country鈥檚 ongoing recovery, after an unprecedented recession.

With the field of presidential candidates still uncertain, and the rules of the presidential and general elections still undefined, the outcome of next October鈥檚 presidential, gubernatorial, and congressional elections is impossible to predict. Illustrating the complexities of the coming political season in Latin America鈥檚 largest democracy, the two candidates currently leading in the polls鈥攍eftist former President Luiz In谩cio Lula da Silva and right-wing Congressman Jair Bolsonaro鈥攁lso have the highest rejection rates in a crowded field. Judicial rulings and the ongoing corruption investigations have the potential to drastically alter the race over the next ten months, starting with an appeals court ruling in late January on one of the seven cases involving corruption allegations against Lula, which could prevent the popular former president from running in October. The emergence of new voices challenging the exhausted political system could also shape the outcome in unpredictable ways.

Congressman Maia鈥檚 keynote was followed by a presentation of the latest opinion poll findings by IDEIA Big Data and a panel discussion with three accomplished scholars of Brazilian politics: Fernando Limongi, Professor of Political Science at the University of Sao Paulo; Oscar Vilhena Vieira, Dean of the FGV School of Law; and Matthew Taylor, Associate Professor of Political Science at American University.

Selected Quotes 

Congressman Rodrigo Maia (original Portuguese)

鈥淥 Brasil enfrenta uma agenda de ajustes t茫o importante quanto dif铆cil. Depois de uma d茅cada em que saiu da rota iniciada nos anos 80s, aos poucos come莽amos a retornar aos trilhos, mas os problemas acumulados s茫o imensos.鈥�

"Brazil faces a fiscal adjustment agenda as important as it is difficult. After a decade in which we fell off the [fiscally responsible] road started in the 1980s, we are gradually beginning to get back on track, but the problems we have accumulated are immense."

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"N贸s temos uma agenda que est谩 colocada para este ano que 茅 a privatiza莽茫o da Eletrobras, que o governo atrasou o envio devido conflitos de opini茫o entre os Minist茅rios da Fazenda e de Minas e Energia, mas parece que dia 1潞 de fevereiro o governo envia o projeto de lei (PL). Acho que 茅 um tema importante e a privatiza莽茫o e de que forma ser茫o alocados os recursos.鈥�

"The privatization of Eletrobras is on the agenda for this year, although the government delayed due to conflicts between the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Mining and Energy. But it seems that on February 1, the government will send the bill [to Congress]. I think it's an important issue and privatization and how resources will be allocated."

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鈥淓u confio muito que a sociedade brasileira vai escolher em 2018鈥ma agenda de reformas. Uma agenda que reorganize o estado brasileiro e que d锚 condi莽玫es para que o setor privado, que queira investir no Brasil, de brasileiros ou n茫o, tenha as condi莽玫es necess谩rias e a seguran莽a jur铆dica para investir no nosso Brasil.鈥�

"I very much trust that Brazilian society will choose in 2018鈥� a reform agenda -- an agenda that reorganizes the Brazilian state and that provides the private sector (Brazilian and foreign), which wants to invest in Brazil, with the necessary conditions and legal security to invest in our Brazil."

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鈥淥 problema 茅 que para alguns, o centro 茅 uma posi莽茫o entre a esquerda e a direita, acho que a pol铆tica est谩 em um ponto de mudan莽a onde o centro n茫o 茅 necessariamente esse ponto entre direita e esquerda, 茅 um ponto onde as pessoas entende a importancia do dialogo com toda sociedade.鈥�

"The problem is that for some, the center is a position between left and right. I think politics is at a turning point where the center is not necessarily between left and right, but rather is a point where people understand the importance of dialogue with all society."

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鈥淎 politica fiscal n茫o deveria fazer parte de embates pol铆ticos.鈥�

"Fiscal policy should not be part of the political battles."

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鈥淎cho que se a gente n茫o tivesse tido o problema das 2 den煤ncias contra presidente Temer, nos teria votado a previd锚ncia, e melhor do que essa, e nos estaria num cen谩rio hoje discutindo a reforma tribut谩ria e discutindo outros temas importantes.鈥�

"I think that if we had not had this problem of two denunciations against President Temer, we would have already voted on social security reform, and better yet, we would be currently discussing tax reform and other important issues."

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On running for the presidency: 鈥淗oje n茫o. Eu tenho 1 por cento na pesquisa. No dia que eu tiver 7 por cento, as coisas melhoram muito.鈥�

"Today, no. I am polling at 1 percent. The day that I have 7 percent, things would be much better."

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On Bolsa Familia and other social welfare programs: 鈥淐riar um programa para escravizar as pessoas n茫o 茅 um bom programa social. O programa bom 茅 onde voc锚 inclui a pessoa e d谩 condi莽玫es para que ela volte 脿 sociedade e possa, com suas pr贸prias pernas, conseguir um emprego. A cidadania 茅 um emprego, a cidadania n茫o 茅 depender do Estado brasileiro.鈥�

"Creating a program that enslaves people is not a good social program. A good program is when you include the person and enable him to return to society so that he can, with his own legs, get a job. Citizenship is a job. Citizenship is not dependent on the Brazilian State."