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The Mexico Institute was pleased to host a Ground Truth Briefing with analysis of the election results and implications for the L贸pez Obrador government, featuring insights from experts on the ground, including an official election observer. The audio recording of the Ground Truth Briefing is available above. On June 6, Mexicans participated in the largest election in the country's history where they chose candidates for over 21,000 offices. The election marked the halfway point in President Andr茅s Manuel L贸pez Obrador's term and was widely viewed as a referendum on his first three years in office. The outcome of the election will determine the extent to which L贸pez Obrador can implement his Fourth Transformation of Mexico. With a weak and divided opposition, L贸pez Obrador's ruling party, Morena, is expected to maintain control of the Congress.

Selected Quotes

Duncan Wood

鈥淥ne of the biggest takeaways of this election is that democracy does work in Mexico. I know that a lot of people have had doubts about the future of democracy, but it鈥檚 alive and well鈥� The culture of democracy is alive and kicking.鈥�

鈥淚f you attack the legitimacy of the election, you are attacking the legitimacy of more than a million Mexicans who worked on that election. And that is a pretty tough battle to pick.鈥�

"We are still in the very preliminary stages of the relationship with the Biden Administration and the current Mexican Government. The approach that we鈥檝e seen so far is that the Biden team wants to build a positive and constructive relationship with AMLO.鈥�

Alexandra Zapata Hojel

鈥淭he state of Guerrero originally had a candidate from Morena who has been accused by multiple women of rape鈥� and he decided and Morena allowed him to impose his daughter as the new candidate for the Morena party, and unfortunately she won in Guerrero, and that鈥檚 a very strong message against the women鈥檚 movement across Mexico.鈥�

鈥淭he most powerful message that comes out of this election is the shift in checks and balances and the fact that Morena will no longer鈥攗nless it reaches agreements with other parties鈥攊t won鈥檛 be able to change the constitution by itself and with its immediate allies. I think that鈥檚 very important in terms of democracy.鈥�

鈥淭he big victory in this election is the credibility and the strength with which the INE exits this election, I think citizens will be trusting INE, citizens will be acknowledging the importance of INE, and I think that鈥檚 a very important step in the right direction moving toward 2024.鈥�

鈥淭he takeaway message is that it will not be enough for the opposition party to simply run with the message of 鈥榳e are the opposition to Morena鈥�. They literally have nothing else to offer to the Mexican public besides that. As we move towards 2024, the opposition parties will have to come up with ideas and an election platform that will convince and inspire Mexicans much more than they have done in this election鈥�

Carlos Heredia

鈥淚 think the main message is that voters decided to establish some sort of checks and balances that did not exist for the first three years of the term of President Andr茅s Manuel L贸pez Obrador. The main message is that Mexican democracy is not one color only, but it is plural and diverse.鈥�

鈥淚t is really an enormous achievement on the part of the President and his party and his coalition to have ratified their absolute majority and to have won the election in spite of the Mexican economy going down as it has over the past three years.鈥�

鈥淭he voters [of Mexico] do not want a supreme court that follows the dictum of the President even though he has appointed three of the justices early on in his term. The outcome of the election is also good news for the supreme court keeping its role in the checks and balances in the political system as a whole.鈥�

鈥淚 think that the big question up in the air is whether Vice President Kamala Harris will be able to balance the two main points in the visit鈥檚 agenda. The first one being persuading Mexico and Guatemala to continue to play the role of containment of northward migration flows. The second one being to play a role in local and regional development of Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador.鈥�

Pamela Starr

鈥淸The election] reinforces the independence of the supreme court in the sense that it will be hard for L贸pez Obrador to say that he has won an overwhelming election mandate that would allow him to win over the votes that he needs in the senate in order to get the two thirds [votes] that are required to approve a new supreme court justice.鈥�

鈥淭he result of the election is not going to lead to a L贸pez Obrador who is less devoted to his fourth transformation of Mexico. He is deeply devoted to that. It may change the tactics he uses.鈥�

鈥淲e鈥檙e still going to see this aggressive tone toward actors that try to obstruct [L贸pez Obrador鈥檚] efforts to move [his policy] forward. And that tone is not going to be a positive tone for U.S.-Mexico relations.鈥�