浪花直播

This event, part of the 浪花直播 Center鈥檚 Hindsight Up Front , featured a conversation鈥攎oderated by 浪花直播 Center President and CEO Mark Green鈥攚ith Gen. David Petraeus and Sir John Scarlett, co-chairs of the 浪花直播 Center鈥檚 Global Advisory Council and two of the world鈥檚 foremost public intellectuals. They evaluated the current situation in Afghanistan, six months after the U.S. withdrawal. Their discussion will include security, economics, refugees, human rights, and the performance of the Taliban regime. They will also revisit their earlier 浪花直播 Center conversation, held in July 2021, that focused on the implications of the U.S. withdrawal.

Selected Quotes

Sir John McLeod Scarlett on how the withdrawal from Afghanistan might have influenced Putin鈥檚 thinking.

鈥淵es, I do, I鈥檓 afraid. Inevitably that is going to leave a medium to longer term thought in the minds of people who are going to think that anyway. We don鈥檛 know exactly what role that has played in President Putin鈥檚 thinking regarding the crisis we鈥檝e got now ,but it played a role there somewhere. And because we are very conscious of it, so because of our awareness of it, you can see the way and how carefully and how we鈥檝e acted and the attention given to allies, and the attention given to detail planning and everybody working 24 hours, seven days a week, and not going off on holidays and so on. All of these things I know, from talking to colleagues and so on, in London, they are very conscious of the needs to avoid the mistakes across Afghanistan, and that鈥檚 partly organizational mistakes and it鈥檚 also, of course, mindset mistakes.鈥�   

General David Petraeus calls the outcome 鈥渢ragic鈥� and says the withdrawal damaged U.S. credibility.

鈥淲ell, if you look at what I think the outcome has been鈥攕o let me off that first if I could, Ambassador and great to be with you and always great to be reunited with Sir John. I think the outcome can only be described as heartbreaking, tragic, and disastrous. It鈥檚 heartbreaking for the Afghans, needless to say, to face the kind of privation, repression, return to a seventh century interpretation of ultra-conservative Islam. It is tragic in so many ways to see a government that, however imperfect it was, however corrupt it may have been, was such a good partner, a great partner, really when it came to our efforts to ensure that Islamist extremists could not reestablish sanctuaries on Afghan soil the way that Al Qaeda had when the 9/11 attacks were planned on that soil and the initial turning of the attackers was carried out in Afghanistan as well.

And in many ways, it鈥檚 disastrous in the sense that it allowed our potential adversaries to say 鈥楽ee we told you so, we told you that the Americans can鈥檛 be depended on, they鈥檙e not solid allies and partners ,and we told you that they鈥檙e a great power in decline.鈥� Now, I don鈥檛 believe either of those, and I think that we are showing in our steadfast support together with our NATO and the EU and other allies and partners in the free world, that we are determined in the case of Ukraine. But this certainly did create some doubt and it showed that we just lacked the strategic patience to continue an effort that, however frustrating, I felt again should have been continued and could have been in a way that was sustainable. And sustainability is measured here in terms of blood and treasure.鈥�

Ambassador Mark Green gives an overview of the poverty, hunger, and growth challenges in Afghanistan since the U.S. withdrawal six months ago.

鈥淪o, even before the withdrawal, Afghanistan鈥檚 economy was struggling. But since the withdrawal, things have gotten obviously dramatically worse. Three-fourths of the population are now suffering from acute poverty. Nearly 23 million out of a population of 38 million are going hungry, and Afghanistan鈥檚 economy is expected to contract by 30%. The UN estimates that Afghanistan will need more than $8 billion in foreign assistance and that鈥檚 25% more than the UN is spending on all global peacekeeping missions.鈥�