浪花直播

2022 will be a critical year in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Among the flashpoints: the world鈥檚 major powers are engaged in last-gasp diplomacy to contain Iran鈥檚 steadily advancing nuclear program, this week saw an extraordinary escalation with Houthi attacks against the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon鈥檚 economy and government have virtually imploded, and Libya, Syria, and Yemen are still embroiled in conflict, drawing in regional and international powers.

These new and emerging threats pose enormous challenges to policymakers in Washington, D.C. Although, the Biden administration, in its actions and public statements, appears committed to the classic American-led international security order. Whether it can leverage the United States鈥� remaining influence to achieve a sense of peace and security remains to be seen.

 MEP鈥檚 distinguished panel tackled these challenges and highlighted opportunities for more U.S. engagement in the region.

Selected Quotes

Ambassador James Jeffrey

鈥淚n Northeast Syria, which has been pretty quiet, we have had a major outbreak of violence by ISIS, which we haven鈥檛 heard all that much of recently, with a prison break and extensive combat involving American infantry in post combat out of Bradley armored vehicle for the first time since we鈥檝e deployed those vehicles to Northeast Syria.鈥�

Robin Wright

鈥淓ven if we should get back to the 2015 deal, the danger is that Iran also has another front that is very worrisome and that is Iran鈥檚 missile program, which over the past five years鈥� exceeded all expectations鈥� Iran now has a missile that can hit 2000 kilometers away鈥攄eep into China to the east, Russia to the north, as far south as Ethiopia and Somalia, and as far west as Greece. There鈥檚 no country in the world that has a 2000-kilometer missile that doesn鈥檛 have a nuclear weapon.鈥� 

鈥淚ran鈥檚 network of allies and proxies is arguably broader and better than at any time since the Revolutionary Guards fostered the creation of Hezbollah in 1982. Iran has not just identified partners to align with鈥攚hich is the usual route to creating an alliance鈥攊t鈥檚 actually gone out into the region and created allies, which is in many ways鈥� unprecedented.鈥� 

Geneive Abdo

鈥淲e have seen the street movement now enter the political sphere and this is very important because these young people who were on the streets of Iraq figured out that there were two trends of thought. One was to boycott the elections and that happened; a great number of activists and protesters were campaigning on a boycott鈥攖hey boycotted the election. But then there was another school of thought who said: 鈥榠f we want to reform the system then we have to participate in it.鈥� And again, they won seats. The result of this protest movement has been very significant, not only in terms of the future government formation of Iraq鈥� but also in terms of Iran鈥檚 influence.鈥�

鈥淟ebanon unfortunately is much less of a success story. The civil society movement there was pushed back [and] defeated. I mean, we鈥檙e seeing Hezbollah emerge certainly in a much better position than they were two years ago鈥攅specially with the departure of Saad Hariri from the political scene, which we just saw in the last few days. So, there鈥檚 a huge Sunni vacuum in Lebanon that I think is being filled by some of the more corrupt and sectarian parties, such as Hezbollah.鈥�

Michael Singh

鈥淭here鈥檚 not a lot of confidence that whatever the United States does is going to roll back Iran in a significant way. That will have implications for the region. It will have implications for example for proliferation鈥� and I think in a world where you do have states like North Korea and Iran either crossing the nuclear threshold or coming up to it, in a world where the United States is seen as less reliable, will increasingly face proliferation challenges from allies and partners鈥攏ot just from adversaries.鈥�

 鈥淚n the context of great power competition with Russia and China鈥� it is easy to see the Middle East as a distraction from that focus. But I think that increasingly in fact the Middle East, as well as other regions in the world, are to some extent a theater鈥攐r an arena鈥攆or great power competition. China has moved much more significantly into the Middle East, especially economically 鈥� but not only economically. Just recently in the Wall Street Journal鈥� the story about Chinese military construction鈥攁lleged military construction鈥攊n the United Arab Emirates, one of the United States closest security partners in the region.鈥� 

Abdullah Baabood

鈥淚 think Iran has changed a lot and we need to have a new way of looking at Iran and maybe engaging with it rather than trying to put it under maximum pressure, which we鈥檝e seen. What has this led to? We鈥檝e tried to close the roads for Iran, we鈥檝e tried not to engage with them but they鈥檝e found ways of engaging with us through conflicts and wars; and through supporting their proxies in the region.鈥� 

鈥淭he whole regional powers can work together towards peace, prosperity, human rights, and accepting each other on equal footing 鈥� and trying to find ways to collaborate and defend themselves. Without that, the region can still be open for international manipulation, regional power competition, internal struggles, and the challenges are huge.鈥�

Event Summary

The unrelenting threat of Iran

The Islamic Republic of Iran poses myriad political and military concerns to the United States, as well as regional and global security. Most pressing is the country鈥檚 accelerating nuclear capabilities. Reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) will have three vital consequences: prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons across the Middle East, shore up the unraveling of the world鈥檚 nuclear order as deals from the 20^th century continue to erode, and limit the potential for the Middle East region鈥檚 leading Sunni and Shia powers to seek nuclear weaponry (Saudi Arabia and Iran, respectively).

Failed diplomatic efforts could have immediate implications on regional security and stability. According to United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Iran is mere weeks from irreversible advancements in its nuclear capabilities. 鈥淭he bottom line is [with] the Iranians, who are masters are brinkmanship, time is running out. We could maybe pull off a miracle at the end of the day, but I think the new regime in Tehran is felling quite heady. There is no guarantee at all that they will go back as they promised,鈥� noted Robin Wright, USIP-浪花直播 Center Distinguished Fellow.   

Great power competition

The Biden administration must also shape its Mideast foreign policy in the context of great power competition with Russia and China. 鈥淚t is easy to see the Middle East as a distraction, but increasingly the Middle East is a theater, or arena, for great power competition,鈥� argues Michael Singh, Lane-Swig Fellow and Managing Director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Noting that Russian military sales and Chinese economic cooperation has greatly expanded.

Diplomatic efforts such as the Abraham Accords, that normalized relations between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain, offer an opportunity to the Biden administration to address deeper problems in the region, without investing as much time or resources. Regional integration enables the United States to transfer some of the burden onto its allies. According to Singh, 鈥淭here is a possibility for the US鈥� partners to cooperate on security matters without the intervention of the US.鈥� 

Civil society, sectarian politics and the people of MENA

Dynamics within the Middle East鈥檚 societal powers are rapidly evolving, which are often overlooked by policymakers and experts in D.C. who over-emphasize state power. 2021 witnessed a new phase of civil society mobilization in Lebanon and Iraq, two countries that have strong geopolitical consequences for the region, especially given Iran鈥檚 influence in both countries鈥� domestic politics. Iraq鈥檚 younger generation waged a social movement against the corrupt power-sharing system, and demanded an electoral system that more democratically reflects the population. 鈥淲e have seen the street movement now enter the political sphere. This is important because these young people figured out there are two trends of thought: boycott the elections or [believe], 鈥榠f we want to reform the system, we have to participate in it,鈥欌�� contended Geneive Abdo, Visiting Fellow at The Arab Gulf States Institute of Washington.

By contrast, the civil society movement in Lebanon was pushed back and looks near defeat. According to Abdo, 鈥淭here is a huge Sunni vacuum in Lebanon that is being filled by some of the more corrupt and sectarian parties, such as Hezbollah.鈥� Iran鈥檚 influence on these divergent outcomes cannot be ignored. The protests that swept Iraq were also an anti-Iran movement, as Iraqis set out to declare they no longer support the notion that Shia militias have a role in the government. In Lebanon, however, with Hezbollah鈥檚 greater control, Iran鈥檚 presence grows. 

Echoing this sentiment is Abdullah Baabood, Visiting Professor at Waseda University and analyst from Oman, who believes Arab states must look beyond the conventional views on security. Issues such as political and economic inclusivity and identity politics have a major bearing on the stability of the region. 鈥淲hat is needed is a new way of thinking. A new paradigm shift [so that] regional powers can work together toward peace, prosperity, and human rights.鈥� For example, the threat of climate changed proved as elusive as ever in 2021, with unpredictable weather patterns and extreme heat disrupting the daily lives of populations across the Middle East. Dr. Baabood noted efforts to mitigate climate change, 鈥渞equires regional and global cooperation. This is one way of getting the countries to work together because they are facing one common threat.鈥�