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鈥淣igeria is a country of marginalized people. Every group you talk to, from the  to the , will tell you they are marginalized,鈥� said Peter Lewis, director of the at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.

Youth make up the bulk of society and yet are sidelined by a disproportionate unemployment rate. The vast majority of Nigerians () live on less than $2 a day as the country鈥檚 growing wealth is concentrated in fewer and fewer hands. A changing climate, minimal services, and Boko Haram , while environmental degradation, corruption, and resource mismanagement . 

Unmet Demographic Expectations

鈥淭hirty years ago there was an expectation of better progress on demographic transition for Nigeria,鈥� said Scott Radloff, the director of USAID鈥檚 . In 1982, he said, the United Nations Population Division estimated that total fertility rates (TFR) would fall from 6.8 children per woman to 4.7 by 2010, and that infant mortality rates would fall from 132 deaths per 1,000 live births to just 57 over the same time period. In reality, , while infant mortality slid to 97.

For family planning in particular, Radloff said, 鈥渢here鈥檚 been little to show for [the international community鈥檚] investment. Modern contraceptive prevalence was measured in 2008 at just 10 percent, which is not very different from where it was 20 years ago, or 30 years ago for that matter.鈥�

The country鈥檚 population growth will further strain its resources in the coming years, said Bolatito Ogunbiyi, an Atlas Fellow with . Nigeria is already , she said, and climate change and population growth are projected to further constrain supply while boosting demand.

Those twin pressures will also make food security efforts more difficult as more people will have to feed themselves with less land and less reliable access to natural resources. 鈥淟ooking at the effect of climate change with population growth鈥he situation could get worse in the future,鈥� said Ogunbiyi.

鈥淎 Very Important Contradiction鈥�

In recent years, an economic boom has accompanied Nigeria鈥檚 population boom, making it one of the fastest growing economies in the world, said the World Bank鈥檚 . On the one hand, that growth is contributing to a small but growing middle class in the country, on the other, there remains 鈥渁 very important contradiction in Nigeria鈥� between greater prosperity and growing unemployment. 

鈥淲hile there is impressive GDP growth鈥hat growth is not being distributed evenly through the economy,鈥� said , vice president of the business consulting firm . 鈥淕rowth is concentrated in fewer and fewer hands.鈥� 

While the boom benefits Nigeria鈥檚 wealthy, the country鈥檚 youth suffer disproportionately from rising unemployment, said Treichel, with  of the 15- to 24-year-old cohort unemployed. In order to get one of the few formal sector jobs available, youth 鈥渒eep going back to school and adding another bachelor鈥檚 degree, another master鈥檚 degree,鈥� he said, 鈥渁nd that鈥檚 so difficult, because those jobs just don鈥檛 keep growing at the pace that is necessary.鈥� 

Adolescent Reproductive Health and Family Planning

鈥淧overty predisposes adolescents to high risk behaviors and pushes parents to marry off their daughters,鈥� said , executive director of in Lagos. Further, 鈥渟ocially prescribed gender roles undermine young women鈥檚 agency and their ability to protect themselves.鈥� Such perceptions must be altered she argued, if the country鈥檚 human resources are to be full realized. 

鈥淭hese are the young people who will govern Nigeria, with no education, and for the women, limited agency and a [limited] means of managing their own fertility.鈥� 

鈥淲hen we say adolescent sexual and reproductive health, we mean the physical, mental, emotional well-being of young people 鈥� that includes the freedom from unwanted pregnancy, unsafe abortion, maternal death, sexual transmitted infections (including HIV), and every form of sexual violence and coercion,鈥� she said.

In the north, more than two-thirds of girls marry before the age of 20, according to Esiet. 鈥淭his violates the rights of these young women, because they can鈥檛 be consenting if they are minors. These girls are marrying men who are far older than them [and] who have multiple partners,鈥� placing them at risk of contracting sexual diseases and leading to loss of schooling and livelihood opportunities, she said. For every one adolescent boy who is HIV positive in Nigeria, there are three girls.

In addition, 鈥渢eenage mothers are twice as likely to die from pregnancy-related causes,鈥� Esiet said, yet more than half of Nigerian girls bear their first child before the age of 20. These newborns are also more likely to die during infancy. 鈥淭eenagers are typically physically, emotionally, and economically, unprepared to take care of children because they are still children themselves.鈥�

鈥淎 major driver [of poor health outcomes] continues to be the denial amongst adults of the fact that young people are not asexual,鈥� said Esiet. 鈥淚n the midst of all of these negative sexual and reproductive health indicators, adults will still rather believe that young people should not have access to services or information.鈥� 

鈥淲hat people need is information to take more informed decisions,鈥� said the 鈥檚 Kabir Abdullahi. 鈥淚ncidentally, that is not what is provided.鈥� 

A dearth of facilities, transport, and family planning services, as well as the low priority this area receives in the government budget, has resulted in a shocking maternal mortality rate of , according to Abdullahi. 

With a total fertility rate of almost six children per woman and a population set to double over the next 25 years, huge expansions in the health sector are needed even just to maintain the current level of services, he said. 

Abdullahi, using data about correlations between wealth, geography, contraceptive use, fertility rates, gender preferences, and birthing practices asserted that improving services will require focusing on the most vulnerable.

He recommended making health insurance available to those at the community level and focusing on changing 鈥渢he norm of secrecy around family planning鈥� by encouraging traditional community and to reflect on the impact of poor maternal health on their communities. 

鈥淩eligious leaders have tremendous power of speech,鈥� Abdullahi said. 鈥淏ecause they speak the same language, they understand them, they know them, [and] they have trust in them.鈥�

Accounting for Diversity and Maintaining Commitments 

, chief of party for the NGO , said the extensive sub-national diversity in Nigeria is an important factor in the . 

Kpamor explained that a large portion of national health funding is commonly allocated to high profile projects in teaching hospitals and major centers. These projects, she said, fail to benefit the diverse majority of Nigerians. 

鈥淭he primary key,鈥� said Esiet, 鈥渋s understanding that when we say adolescents or young people, we鈥檙e talking about a diverse population. We have resources and we know what needs to be done, it鈥檚 the management of those resources that continues to draw us back as a country.鈥�

All of the speakers explained at length that health solutions require a comprehensive approach, better information, better services, higher quality infrastructure, and a serious focus on gender relations. Yet, the heart of the problem is that the pledges being made have not converted into action. 

鈥淲e like to say that Nigeria would sign every funky policy, any beautiful policy that comes up 鈥� we鈥檙e the first to sign,鈥� said Esiet. However, 鈥渟ticking by the letters of the documents we signed鈥ruly becomes an issue.鈥�

鈥淭he truth of the matter is that there鈥檚 progress that鈥檚 been made in Nigeria, it鈥檚 just that progress is just too slow.鈥�

Youth and Conflict

In the coming years, Nigeria鈥檚 cohort of unemployed youth has equal potential to 鈥渂e converted into either a religious or a regional clash, as certain youths get opportunities and other youths do not,鈥� said , President Emeritus of the .

Youth in the  offer a case in point. Judy Asanti, executive director of , a Nigeria-based conflict resolution NGO, said that the 2009 amnesty program the government enacted to disarm militants has, paradoxically, incentivized violence among the country鈥檚 marginalized youth as they struggle to establish livelihoods for themselves. Seeing the government pay former militants monthly stipends in exchange for disarming, marginalized youth are now motivated to take up arms against the state with the expectation that it will then have no choice but to pay them for peace. 

Conflict in the country extends far beyond Niger Delta, however, and is motivated by a number of factors beyond opposition to the oil industry and its negative impact on local development. 鈥淰iolence in Nigeria is unfortunately quite regular, quite intense, but also quite varied in its motives, in its scope, and in its direction,鈥� said Peter Lewis. 

鈥淭here is not a single fault line, north-south, Christian-Muslim, , or any other such simple division that would explain鈥he majority of violence in Nigeria.鈥�

There is nonetheless a set of 鈥渃ritical issues鈥� that are reflected across the country鈥檚 main centers of conflict, said Baker. In the , , and , 鈥減opulation issues, health issues, and natural resource issues are all critical,鈥� she said. 

Land and Climate Challenges

With so much at stake in an already unstable region, , head of gender, climate change, and sustainable development at the , said climate change exacerbates insecurity.

鈥淣igeria鈥s not immune to the ,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e have seen Lake Chad dry up, we have seen people lose their livelihoods, and we鈥檝e seen the migration that has come out of Lake Chad into Nigeria.鈥�

How do you plan for this? The answer, Nyong said, is in figuring out how to 鈥渟ustain green growth in the face of poverty alleviation.鈥� The  will be an important forum for exploring alternatives, he argued. 鈥淲e cannot continue on the development paradigm that we have chosen.鈥�

, senior program manager at the , pointed out the specific gendered impacts of environmental stress. 鈥淐limate change impacts, such as water scarcity, and falling agricultural productivity, may disproportionately affect women and girls,鈥� he said, drawing from the 2010. 

鈥淲omen make up some 60 to 80 percent of [the] agricultural labor force in Nigeria 鈥� they play a very important role in this sector,鈥� said Akor. Yet they rarely own the land because it is largely a patrilineal society. This disconnect reduces the capacity of Nigeria鈥檚 communities to adapt to challenges such as population pressure, severe erosion, uncontrolled logging, land subsidence, flooding in the coastal and riverine states, and drought and desertification in the north, he said.

鈥淲ater, land, and biodiversity are under severe pressure,鈥� and that stress is manifested in crop failure, declining yields, and increased work time required for less food and less income. Women鈥檚 livelihoods are directly affected by these issues, said Akor. 

The urban environment also faces pressure from poor land management, shoddy construction, and the continued growth of slums in major cities. 

Industrial activities, such as illegal mining in the north-west, which received media attention after the discovery of , and  from spillage and gas flares, are also serious environmental issues, Akor said. 

Water Mismanagement and Government Opacity

鈥淲ater and sanitation isn鈥檛 really a hot topic in Nigeria,鈥� said  of Nigeria鈥檚 newspaper. Yet, 鈥渆very year, almost [and] many more fall terribly sick from water related diseases like cholera, dysentery, and typhoid fever.鈥� Akpe described challenging authorities on the lack of safe water and routinely receiving answers that were evasive and nonchalant. 鈥淚t鈥檚 something you see over and over again,鈥� she said. 

鈥淭he water sanitation crisis鈥s less about the lack of the resource, or even the lack of funds, and more about  that have dramatic consequences,鈥� said Akpe. She pointed to a , where tens of millions of dollars have been spent on a new water treatment facility in an area that  to actually distribute the water to residents. 

How could such an oversight occur? The reasons are complex, but corruption and a lack of transparency in government financing are major issues, she said. Despite government , the water budget has been repeatedly slashed since 2010. It is now 65 percent of what it used to be, Akpe said.

Reasons for Optimism in a Rising Civil Society

The growing rift between Nigerians and their government  when thousands protested the end of the government鈥檚 , which caused prices for food, fuel, and transportation to skyrocket overnight. Although there have been protests in response to oil price hikes in the past 鈥� notably  鈥� this round was markedly different, said , an Africa policy analyst with the . 

The mood of the January protests was encapsulated by a student quoted in Reuters, said Amosu. 鈥淗e said, 鈥�.鈥欌�� Paired with the unequal distribution of recent growth, that distrust is reorienting public opinion and galvanizing civil society. Within weeks, the protests prompted the government to  and simply reduce, rather than repeal, the subsidy.

鈥淭here is a rising level of expectations that鈥s changing the way that people think,鈥� said Amosu. 鈥淧eople are beginning to feel more acutely the difficulties around poverty, around jobs, around lack of services.鈥� Those rising expectations are contributing to a level of discourse on governance that is unparalleled in the country鈥檚 recent history, and which, if sustained, could help brighten the country鈥檚 future. 

鈥淣igeria鈥檚 never been this divided since the civil war, and yet the country has never been this united in protest in its history,鈥� she said, . 鈥淎nd I think that speaks to the idea that people are getting a handle on the idea that they are a critical part of holding the nation to account.鈥�

Drafted by Kate Diamond and Stuart Kent, edited by Schuyler Null.

Photo Credit: , courtesy of flickr user smagdali (Stefan Magdalinski).