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鈥淩ussia today is in an undesirable strategic situation, and is not prepared to compete with the global world,鈥� said Bruce Parrott, Professor and Director, Russian and Eurasian Studies Program, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, and Fellow, Woodrow 浪花直播 Center, at a 13 June 2011 Kennan Institute event. Parrott鈥檚 remarks focused on Russia鈥檚 geopolitics during the tsarist, Soviet, and post-Soviet periods.

During the tsarist era, Russia 鈥渉ad to choose where to put its priorities in foreign affairs鈥攊n East Asia or in Europe, and how to use its resources,鈥� Parrott explained. Tsar Nicholas II initially chose to expand Russia鈥檚 territory in Asia, which resulted in the 1905 Russo-Japanese War. Eventually, accelerated industrialization throughout the empire prompted the imperial government鈥檚 geopolitical agenda to shift to the western borderlands鈥攑articularly, to Poland and Ukraine.  While industrialization proved economically beneficial to the empire, it also 鈥渋ncreased the country鈥檚 economic vulnerability in the Black Sea and the Balkans鈥� to European attack in times of war, according to the speaker.

Parrott noted that following the establishment of the USSR, Soviet-era geopolitics emphasized military globalization. In light of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian geopolitics again has narrowed in geographic focus, concentrating on relations with Europe, the Middle Eurasia zone, and the South Pacific zone. In particular, Russia has increased its economic engagement with Europe, with energy serving as the main 鈥渓inking issue鈥� between Russia and the EU. In Parrott鈥檚 opinion, however, if present trends continue, Russia鈥檚 prospects for closer relations with Europe are likely to remain modest, even though closer relations with Europe are a precondition for Russia鈥檚 socioeconomic modernization and security over the long term.

The Middle Eurasian zone鈥攖he speaker鈥檚 term for the territory that extends from the eastern shore of the Black Sea to the eastern edge of Mongolia鈥攔emains, as it has throughout history, part of the geopolitical 鈥済reat game.鈥� In the past, Soviet leaders feared that outside states would manipulate Islamic radicalism to undermine their hold on the USSR Central Asian republics. However, according to Parrott, today no great power is seeking to acquire more territory in the region, and no great power is trying to promote Islamic radicalism. Parrott further noted that Russia, like most major state actors interested in the Middle Eurasian zone, is mainly focused on the wealth of energy resources.

As for the Russian Federation鈥檚 geopolitical relations with the Asia-Pacific zone, the country鈥檚 role traditionally has been focused on military concerns. 鈥淭he USSR viewed itself as a kind of fortress. In particular, it didn鈥檛 want active trade with Asia. Now all is changing,鈥� Parrott said. Yet, despite trying to exploit new markets, Russia remains in a weak position against the other growing powers in the region, and cannot compete with them on multiple economic and strategic levels.

Russia needs to implement radical changes at home to improve its status in the geopolitical arena, concluded the speaker. 鈥淢odernization became a buzzword in Russia today, but it鈥檚 left to be seen if the Russian political elite will really carry out reforms,鈥� Parrott concluded, 鈥渙r whether their intentions will remain at the level of the promises of Soviet leaders.鈥�

By Natalia Jensen
Blair Ruble, Director, Kennan Institute