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The isolation of the Venezuelan government continues to grow, as the United States and countries from throughout Latin America and Europe are imposing individual and economic sanctions on the regime of President Nicol谩s Maduro. Meanwhile, Russia has remained one of Venezuela鈥檚 staunchest allies. As Washington threatens to pursue harsher sanctions, Venezuela has turned to Russia as a source of economic and military support, offering the Kremlin, in turn, a useful platform to expand its influence in Latin America.

浪花直播鈥檚 Latin American Program and Kennan Institute partnered to host a panel discussion on Russia鈥檚 role in the Venezuela crisis.

Selected Quotes

Matthew Rojansky

鈥淓verything that I have read and seen about what鈥檚 happening in Venezuela seems to be an understatement when you put it all together. It鈥檚 truly a crisis that鈥檚 greater than the sum of its parts.鈥�

Cynthia Arnson

鈥淭he Venezuelan crisis鈥� is the most profound economic and humanitarian crisis in modern Latin American history.鈥�

鈥淭here has been a collapse of governance at every level, with the exception, perhaps, of the repressive apparatus.鈥�

鈥淎t the same time that Venezuela is a growing 鈥� and has been for some time 鈥� concern in the Western Hemisphere and of the United States and its policy vis-脿-vis the region, the United States and Latin American countries are by far not the only international actors.鈥�

Risa Grais-Targow

鈥淥bama did move to impose individual sanctions, but in general, I think, was more focused on engagement and also on a multilateral approach to Venezuela鈥� What we鈥檝e seen under the Trump administration is certainly a shift toward more isolationism and a much more aggressive policy stance.鈥�

鈥淭he sanctions, I would say, from an economic perspective, have really limited the government鈥檚 options. I mean, they were already limited, but I would say [they] reinforce that trend, and do, I think, make bilateral partners like Russia all the more important, just in terms of the few options that they have out there.鈥�

Victor Jeifets

鈥淰enezuela is considered now as one of [Russia鈥檚] political allies 鈥� a very weak one and very isolated 鈥� but still one of the few allies. While you are at war, even a cold one, you cannot forget about allies. I think that is one of the main reasons for Moscow to maintain relations with Venezuela.鈥�

鈥淰enezuela might be the last place in Latin America from where Russia would retreat voluntarily. It鈥檚 not because of economy 鈥� because the Venezuelan economy is not in the best condition and I do not know when the good conditions would return 鈥� but it鈥檚 a serious political game. At least at the moment, we can observe that Russian-U.S. relations still could be worse, and in this case, Venezuela鈥� is one of the figures [that could be used] to win the comprehensive global game.鈥�

鈥淚n the last years, we can observe that Russia is trying to increase its involvement in the context of the Venezuelan military. One of the possible explanations is that Russian cannot exclude a kind of military coup in Venezuela and it wants to have contacts in the case that Venezuela decides to change its president. But I don鈥檛 think that Russia is going to protect the Venezuelan military in an armed conflict.鈥�

Francisco Monaldi

鈥淸Sechin] has been in Venezuela more than any CEO of any company by a multiple of many times鈥� We have to consider how much this relationship is relevant separate from the purely geopolitical issue 鈥� how much the attractive contracts that they are taking are also a driver, either complementary [to] the more geostrategic issues that Russia cares about with the Venezuelan regime and also [in terms of] what would happen if there is a transition. My expectation is that Russian companies will continue to play some role in Venezuela in the future.鈥�

鈥淭here is a possible future scenario in which...  Western companies become much less relevant [in Venezuela's oil sector] and the national companies of Russia and China become the biggest players in the country. That scenario 鈥� there are a few things happening that point to that scenario. One is the increasing sanctions on the U.S. side鈥� The other one is the potential of default.鈥�

Michael Penfold

鈥淲hat I want to share with you is my skepticism about the idea that any single country 鈥� be it Russia or China or any other foreign country 鈥� can deal alone with the problems that Venezuela is facing and the magnitude not only of the crisis, but the social and economic collapse that Venezuela is experiencing at this point.鈥�

鈥淭he problem is that China has been changing its perception of Venezuela. China has been, in fact, reducing its exposure to Venezuela substantially鈥� China seems to be reducing its importance and Russia seems to be increasing its relative importance, but it鈥檚 still too small to make a difference.鈥�

鈥淚 do think for the regime, for chavismo as a whole, Russia is a key ally 鈥� but it鈥檚 a key ally in different ways. It鈥檚 providing interesting avenues of support for the government鈥� that are key for stabilizing politically the regime and also for helping the regime to bypass international sanctions.鈥�

Vladimir Rouvinski

鈥淚 think the key value for Russia in Latin America is geographical proximity to the United States, and it has been manifested in the way Russia conducts its foreign policy in Latin American for a long time.鈥�

鈥淚f you look at the way the Russian media has portrayed the situation, how they have explained the crisis in Venezuela 鈥� they make the direct connection with the Ukrainian case, because they say the case of Ukraine is the result of U.S. interference鈥� and the West鈥檚 aggressive action, so the same is happening in Venezuela. Many Russians think that they do understand, but they don鈥檛 know the reasons for the crisis in Venezuela.鈥�

鈥淚 think we have to also take into account that we are witnessing now a very dramatic and rapidly changing global context. We are talking about elections in Venezuela and it is most likely that Maduro will win those elections. But please do not forget that Putin just won a similar kind of election鈥� We know that relations between Putin and Ch谩vez were really strong because both leaders trusted each other a lot. Perhaps this is not the case between Putin and Maduro, but this is the case between Maduro and Igor Sechin.鈥�