浪花直播

A group of 浪花直播 Center scholars discussed regional players in the Arab world and the domestic and international challenges they face in maintaining their influence in the rest of the Middle East.

On November 30, the Middle East Program hosted a meeting, 鈥淲ho Leads the Arab World?鈥� with Robin Wright, USIP-浪花直播 Center Distinguished Scholar; David Ottaway, Senior Scholar, Woodrow 浪花直播 Center; and Hanin Ghaddar, Public Policy Scholar, Woodrow 浪花直播 Center and Managing Editor, NOW News, Lebanon. Haleh Esfandiari, 浪花直播 Center Middle East Program director, moderated the event. Jane Harman, Director, President, and CEO of the 浪花直播 Center, gave welcoming remarks.

Opening the discussion, Jane Harman commented on her recent visit to Egypt during which she witnessed debates over the new constitution. Feeling there is 鈥渋nadequate political capacity in Egypt,鈥� she suggested a move away from protests toward negotiation, which would provide the new government the legitimacy of consensus. Harman further expressed hope in a 鈥渟tunning vision鈥� of a Middle East built on brokering peace and pooling intellectual capital, as well as confidence that Egypt鈥檚 new President Mohamed Morsi has the potential to be a significant player in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.

David Ottaway identified four broader 鈥済eopolitical regions鈥� in the Middle East鈥� the Gulf, the Levant, the Israel-Egypt corridor, and the Maghreb鈥攅ach of which has its own players who have little influence outside their own spheres. These regions primarily face the issues of Iranian influence, Syrian civil war, peace talks, and security in Northern Mali, respectively. Ottaway focused on the Gulf sphere, in particular the ways in which Saudi Arabia is 鈥渢rying to assert its leadership.鈥� He identified three ways in which Saudi initiatives have recently failed regarding the GCC: not being able to come to an agreement over a common currency, not getting Jordan and Morocco to join the GCC, and not being able to form 鈥渦nity鈥� among members. These examples show that Saudi Arabia鈥檚 鈥渁bility to exercise its influence even over its neighbors has been very limited.鈥� Ottaway posited that Saudi Arabia has more regional influence through its support of Salafi movements, although he noted that this influence has been checked by the growing popularity of the Muslim Brotherhood as an alternative approach to Islamist politics. Ottaway also stated that Saudi influence is limited by such domestic issues as an aging monarchy and an unresolved succession issue.

Robin Wright, asserting that 鈥渘o one can overestimate the importance of Egypt,鈥� discussed political trends since the parliamentary and presidential elections this year. She emphasized the significance of the 鈥渘ew phase鈥� of Egyptian political Islam, particularly the 鈥渧ery rich diversity鈥� of movements and the 鈥渧ast internal rifts鈥� within these movements. Wright saw this diversity as a new foundation for democracy, noting that Islam and democracy are increasingly interactive and interdependent in Arab politics. Wright also discussed the unexpected rise of President Mohamed Morsi from unknown engineering professor to the most influential leader in the Arab world in a matter of weeks. She noted his 鈥渞ealistic鈥� approaches to relations with Israel, his attempt to crackdown on extremism in the Sinai, and negotiations with the IMF over objections from ultraconservative Salafi parties. Despite praising Morsi鈥檚 concern for 鈥渉uman-centered laws,鈥� Wright felt that his recent declaration of increased executive authority was a 鈥渃olossal mistake鈥� that was part of a 鈥済radual erosion of the spirit of democracy鈥� that may only serve to unite fractured opposition forces. Wright concluded with a detailed analysis of the final draft of the new constitution, arguing that the discussions about the document are often 鈥渕ore contentious鈥� than the content itself. She argued that although the draft is 鈥渋mperfect鈥濃�斺�渁ll constitutions are鈥� 鈥攊t does more than previous documents to address some rights and may 鈥渟et the tone on these critical issues鈥� in the Arab world.

Turning to a discussion of Qatar, Hanin Ghaddar analyzed the Gulf country鈥檚 efforts to expand its influence in the Middle East. She described Qatar鈥檚 foreign policy since the onset of the Arab Spring as a shift 鈥渇rom soft power to hard power.鈥�  Whereas Qatar had once cultivated ties with Iran and other regional players in an attempt to build up a 鈥減eacebroker role,鈥� now it is 鈥渢aking a stand鈥� based on pragmatic visions of the future. For instance, in Syria, Qatar decided to build ties with Arab Spring 鈥渨inners鈥� by supporting Islamist rebels, ignoring its previous diplomatic ties with Damascus. Ghaddar asserted that Qatar is attempting to fill the void left by the declining influence of Saudi, Iranian, and Western actors in the region. However, she felt that this approach was only a 鈥渟hort term strategy.鈥� As an example, Ghaddar mentioned how many Syrian rebels disguise themselves as Salafis in order to gain Qatari funding; what Qatar thinks will be loyal factions in a new Syria may instead ignore these ties once they no longer need Qatari support. Other Qatari policies might limit its long-term influence as well, such as the monarchist stance of Al-Jazeera鈥檚 Arabic coverage and issue of Qatari domestic repression, as exemplified by a recent case of a poet jailed for life for insulting the emir. Unless Qatar addresses such issues, Ghaddar said, it 鈥渕ight not be able to sustain its influence,鈥� and the long-term effects of its policies, for example regarding Islamism, 鈥渃ould be dangerous鈥� for the Middle East as a whole.

By Laura Rostad, Middle East Program