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China's Carbon Triangle: Climate Change and the Unwinding of the Land-Finance-Real Estate Development Model

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Kissinger Institute on China and the United States
The cover of the essay with the title and a graphic skyline of notable buildings from China.

China produces over 30 percent of global carbon emissions, making Xi Jinping鈥檚 2020 declaration that his country would be carbon neutral by 2060 one of epic significance. A core challenge facing China鈥檚 decarbonization is shifting its economic model to break the 鈥渃arbon triangle鈥 of land, finance, and real estate. This nexus is central to the country鈥檚 political economy and accounts for a significant amount of China鈥檚 carbon emissions, yet it is incredibly inefficient in producing real value as millions of apartments lay vacant. Despite official acknowledgement of the need to shift away from real estate and infrastructure investment, pivoting has proven difficult for the country鈥檚 leaders. Yet, as with most issues in China, national-level features can obscure fascinating and contradictory patterns happening in its provinces and cities. 

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Kissinger Institute on China and the United States

The Kissinger Institute works to ensure that China policy serves American long-term interests and is founded in understanding of historical and cultural factors in bilateral relations and in accurate assessment of the aspirations of China鈥檚 government and people.   Read more

Kissinger Institute on China and the United States