浪花直播

Abstract

Common pronouncements that Washington enjoys a 鈥渘ew consensus鈥� on China mask wide variations in assessments of the China challenge. America鈥檚 China watchers disagree on a host of issues: How much of a threat is China? Was 鈥淓ngagement鈥� a failure? What even was Engagement? This paper maps out the dis-tinct positions on the shift to Strategic Competition. It centers America鈥檚 China watching community as a worthwhile object for understanding Engagement鈥檚 demise. Against the prevailing explanation鈥攖hat China changed rendering Engagement unworkable鈥擨 show that no amount of 鈥渞e-litigating鈥� Engagement will get us to a genuine consensus on what must come next鈥攏or, again, should it. I then analyze the four major groups among America鈥檚 watchers and their views on China and U.S. policy鈥攖he Strategic Competitors, the Engagers, the New Cold Warriors, and the Competitive Coexisters. Finally, I identify the gaps between these groups, as a first step not toward consensus but productive disagreement. 

Implications and Key Takeaways

• Undoubtedly an asset, America鈥檚 vibrant China watching community features a tendency toward polarization and politicization. The U.S. government and the community should endeavor to counter such trends;
• Congress should continue to support the development and funding of opportunities for the study of Chinese language and culture, including reinitiating the China Fulbright program, and funding people-to-people exchanges and cultural diplomacy;
• The USCC and CCE should be supported, and they should continue to hear from a broad swathe of U.S. China experts in their testimony;
• Think tanks should follow suit: promoting dialogue among China experts across the spectrum of views described below at public events and during collaborative work;
• Finally, the government promote Track 1.5 and Track 2 dialogues with the PRC.