Finland's new government was inaugurated on June 20th, it's most right-wing government in recent history. With this major political shift, it鈥檚 worth unpacking the new government鈥檚 vision for Finland on the international stage.
Finland鈥檚 new center-right government, the Orpo Cabinet was inaugurated on June 20th. Although international media attention has on the government鈥檚 shift to the right and on its plans for large spending cuts and tightening of immigration, the new revealing its vision of Finland on the international stage. Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine remains a central piece of the new government鈥檚 foreign and defense policy, as well as its efforts to ramp up support for Ukraine. Key policy decisions outlined in the program include: drafting the first comprehensive national security strategy, a pledge to hit NATO鈥檚 goal of spending 2% of GDP on defense, and a willingness to host a new NATO Centre of Excellence. However, the new government has signaled it will also make large cuts to the budget, especially in development aid鈥攁 key issue for the national-conservative Finns Party鈥攂ut have stated this won鈥檛 affect Finland鈥檚 support for Ukraine. The plan also includes potential reforms which may change the way Finnish foreign and security policy is governed, by potentially shifting power from the President to the Prime Minister on foreign and security policy. While Finland will stay committed to fulfilling its obligations as NATO鈥檚 newest member and in its support for Ukraine, it鈥檚 worth unpacking the new government鈥檚 vision for Finland on the international stage.
The issue of helping Ukraine is mentioned many times in the new government鈥檚 program, with support for Ukraine seen as 鈥渦nwavering鈥. Along with allies, Finland supports Ukraine鈥檚 aspirations to join NATO. Although overall development aid will be cut, humanitarian support for Ukraine will increase by 鈧20 million annually, and the government intends to support Ukraine by 鈧232 million for the coming four years, noting it is prepared to increase funding if necessary. The program also stresses Ukraine is to be the top recipient of foreign military and financial assistance from Finland. The new government will also 鈥渢ake a favorable view of the seizure of frozen Russian assets and the repurposing of revenue from those assets to support Ukraine,鈥 a controversial but necessary option to maximize funds available to Ukraine for reconstruction. Foreign aid will also not be given to countries that 鈥渟upport Russia鈥檚 war of aggression鈥, which might lead to certain countries to lose access, especially some in Africa.
The new government will also "take a favorable view of the seizure of frozen Russian assets and the repurposing of revenue from those assets to support Ukraine".
The Orpo Cabinet clearly sees Russia as the country's top threat, describing Russia鈥檚 actions in Europe as the 鈥済ravest threat in decades鈥. Finland鈥檚 recent NATO membership features prominently in the program, with NATO described as the 鈥渃ore of Finland鈥檚 cooperative foreign policy鈥. Finland鈥檚 first goal in NATO is to finalize Sweden鈥檚 membership, which remains blocked by Hungary and T眉rkiye. Despite the new government鈥檚 commitments to cut overall spending, it pledges to consistently hit the 2% defense spending threshold throughout its term in office. As a new member of NATO eager to prove its value to the alliance, the new government 鈥渟eeks to host a NATO organization in Finland, for example a center of excellence.鈥 Although the new government doesn鈥檛 specify which area of expertise they would like the organization to concentrate on, some Finnish politicians have proposed a NATO Arctic Centre.
It is evident the new government wants to orient Finland into the West, a recurring goal for the National Coalition Party. The Orpo Cabinet wants stronger relationships with the United States - namely by concluding the ongoing negotiations on a - and with the UK, Australia, South Korea and Japan. China is also mentioned in the report as a 鈥渃hallenge to Finland and Europe鈥, and the government intends to reduce strategic 鈥渄ependencies on China鈥. Finland鈥檚 views on China fit into a larger re-contextualizing underway in Europe, most in European Commission Ursula von der Leyen鈥檚 MERICS speech, with the goal of de-risking while not de-coupling from China. This program dramatically shows Finland is attuned to the major foreign policy threat posed by Russia and reflects a deeper awareness of systemic dependencies on China that could prove to be problematic.
Whereas the Orpo Cabinet鈥檚 stances on foreign and defense policy will be welcomed by its allies, especially as it relates to Russia and China, the new government鈥檚 stances on the EU will likely prove controversial. The government considers the EU as a key partner and wants the EU to 鈥減lay big on big issues鈥. However, the Orpo Cabinet also wants the EU to return to its core. That would mean no additional budget increases, no EU-level funding instruments (with Ukraine reconstruction listed as the only possible exception), no common debt and no relaxing of state aid. The government wants every country to be responsible for their own public finances and has called for a return to the no bailout principle. The new Finnish government clearly wants the EU to return to a pre-Covid and pre-Eurozone debt crisis-era fiscal policy. However, the Orpo Cabinet is unlikely to find enough like-minded partners to assist them with these changes to the EU.
The government also wants the EU to bolster its defense cooperation, for example by creating a single market for defense material. The new government supports the increase of qualified majority voting in some areas, such as on foreign and security policy, as well as on sanction policy. The Orpo Cabinet continues with the last government's 2021 - and last month鈥檚 - in efforts to speed up the decision-making process and credibility of EU鈥檚 foreign and security policy.
It is perhaps the most right-wing in recent history yet is also perhaps the most Western oriented in Finnish history.
Finland鈥檚 new government is historic in many ways. It is perhaps the most right-wing in recent history yet is also perhaps the most Western oriented in Finnish history. The National Coalition Party鈥攁 party that emphasizes Western orientation鈥攏ow holds the offices of Prime Minister, Foreign Minister and Defense Minister, while the current President is a former member of the party. The Orpo Cabinet鈥檚 government program shows a continued effort to support Ukraine, strong commitment to defense鈥攊ncluding NATO鈥攁nd a more hawkish EU policy. While Orpo鈥檚 Cabinet is a clear paradigm shift on the economy and immigration policies, Finland's positioning on the international stage will remain strong. The emphasis on a strong Western orientation - a consequence of Russia's invasion of Ukraine - clearly demonstrates the new government wants to firmly establish Finland as a key player in the transatlantic security community.
The Global Europe Program is focused on Europe鈥檚 capabilities, and how it engages on critical global issues. We investigate European approaches to critical global issues. We examine Europe鈥檚 relations with Russia and Eurasia, China and the Indo-Pacific, the Middle East and Africa. Our initiatives include 鈥淯kraine in Europe鈥濃攁n examination of what it will take to make Ukraine鈥檚 European future a reality. But we also examine the role of NATO, the European Union and the OSCE, Europe鈥檚 energy security, transatlantic trade disputes, and challenges to democracy. The Global Europe Program鈥檚 staff, scholars-in-residence, and Global Fellows participate in seminars, policy study groups, and international conferences to provide analytical recommendations to policy makers and the media. Read more
