Jordanians are set to elect a new parliament on September 10, facing economic strain and fears of an Israel-Iran conflict. Amidst apathy, reformists push for political change, while the Islamic Action Front seeks to capitalize on anti-Israel sentiment fueled by the war in Gaza.
Jordanians are heading to the polls on September 10 to elect a new parliament under unprecedented conditions.鈥疶he war in Gaza is dragging down both people鈥檚 spirits and the economy; the threat of an Iranian-Israeli military escalation puts the kingdom at risk of rockets falling on Amman again, while anger and protests over Jordan鈥檚 peace treaty with Israel are at an all-time high.鈥&苍产蝉辫;
For the first time since parliament was reintroduced in 1989, 41 seats out of the 130-seat lower house are being reserved for political parties to loosen the stranglehold of tribal and familial politics on the legislative .
Amid apathy and apprehension, electoral authorities hope turnout improves on previous 2020 polls that saw a record-low 29.9% of the 4.64 million eligible voters cast their ballot.
Despite a nationwide focus on Gaza and fears of an Iran-Israel confrontation, foreign policy is not on the ballot. This is largely due to 2022 parliament-stamped constitutional that created a monarch-chaired , which placed foreign policy and national security matters under the purview of King Abdullah himself, away from .
With royal matters off-limits for debate鈥痑nd in the wake of a series of of pro-Palestinian, anti-Gaza war protesters and social media users criticizing the kingdom鈥檚 ongoing relations with Israel and policies regarding Gaza, few are willing to discuss Jordanian foreign policy.
Instead, one subject on everyone鈥檚 lips from election gatherings to casual conversations: the war in Gaza and the economy as an intertwined, singular issue dragging down households.
Economically, one of the major casualties in Jordan is its tourism sector, which accounted for 14.6% of GDP in 2023 and is the main employer in multiple .鈥&苍产蝉辫;
In the wake of October 7, Jordan saw a 65% of bookings in the fourth quarter of 2023鈥攑eak tourism season鈥攚hile Jordan鈥檚 inbound tourism operators reported a 93% cancellation rate for the first quarter of 2024. As of late summer, 28 hotels have shuttered in Petra, Jordan鈥檚 most visited , which received a record-high 1.17 million visitors in 2023.鈥&苍产蝉辫;
Meanwhile, Houthi retaliation and Red Sea insecurity have impacted trade through Jordan鈥檚 port of Aqaba with national exports down from January through May.鈥&苍产蝉辫;
Amid the uncertainty, many Jordanians are facing a liquidity shortage and are struggling to rent or sell property and vehicles, or start businesses. For-sale and for-rent signs dot the capital of Amman. unemployment stood at 21.4% as of June.鈥&苍产蝉辫;
Mounting Israel-Iran tensions are worsening the kingdom鈥檚 economic outlook, 2024 fall tourism season, and consumer confidence.鈥&苍产蝉辫;
Jordan鈥檚 location in the center of the flight path of Iranian and Houthi drones and missiles heading to Israel鈥擨ranian missiles fell in Amman in April鈥攈as led both budget and major commercial airlines to flights to Amman multiple times.鈥疢ost recently on August 21, five airlines, including United, Lufthansa, and Austrian Airlines,鈥痵uspended flights to Jordan in the wake of a potential Iranian retaliation over Israel鈥檚 August assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran鈥攁 up for renewal on September 15.鈥&苍产蝉辫;
Despite the economy being a central issue, the independent and businessmen candidates who dominated the previous parliament are not offering up concrete economic policies in their re-election campaigns and instead boasting slogans of 鈥済rowth鈥 and 鈥渄ignity.鈥 Many only rely on their names to promote familial and tribal ties for victory.鈥&苍产蝉辫;
Jordan's secular and liberal opposition, meanwhile, is trying to jolt apathetic Jordanians to "vote for change" by linking the kingdom's economic woes to the lack of political reform.
Jordan鈥檚 Labour Party is the election as a fleeting opportunity to push back against 鈥渞eactionary forces鈥 within the state that have undermined and prevented political reform and widening political participation as called for by the king鈥攁nd recommendations by a royal political reform committee that have not been implemented.鈥&苍产蝉辫;
The amended law has been used to target critics of Jordan鈥檚 policies on Gaza and its peace treaty with Israel.鈥&苍产蝉辫;
These reformist parties and coalitions are making free speech a central campaign issue and have vowed to amend the Law鈥攚hich, under government-supported passed in parliament in fall 2023, gives the state the ability to criminalize nearly any and all online speech. The amended law has been used to target critics of Jordan鈥檚 policies on Gaza and its peace with Israel.鈥&苍产蝉辫;
The鈥疍emocratic Current Coalition vows to introduce laws granting greater freedom for unions and wider rights for workers to organize鈥攆our years since Jordanian authorities dissolved the teachers鈥 union, the largest professional body, and violently on educators protesting the move.鈥&苍产蝉辫;
These movements have posted signs across the capital warning citizens "Your silence is dangerous, vote for change" and are aggressively pursuing the youth vote.鈥&苍产蝉辫;
Yet reformists鈥 plea to youth appears to be barely making a dent on Jordanian social media, drowned out by the countless videos of Gazan victims and survivors and Hamas militants flooding Jordanian Twitter, Facebook, and TikTok.
By far the party eyeing the largest Gaza war gains is the Islamic Action Front (IAF), the conservative Islamist opposition party which, through its the Muslim Brotherhood, has long enjoyed organizational and ideological ties to .鈥赌&苍产蝉辫;
The IAF is looking to bounce back from a 2020 showing which saw its coalition lose five seats, from 15 to 10, a result it and independent observers attribute to a previous election law that favored independent candidates over political parties and unequal distribution of seats disadvantaging Amman, the IAF鈥檚 base.
Now with the war in Gaza weighing down Jordanians and the economy, the IAF is running on its historic platform鈥攖he Palestinian cause鈥攁nd is hoping to leverage the new party seats quota to ride a wave of popular anger to a plurality in parliament.鈥&苍产蝉辫;
In candidate speeches and posted on social media, the IAF and Brotherhood are highlighting its historic opposition to the Jordan-Israel peace treaty and normalization鈥攐pposition that began before the 1994 Wadi Araba accords were even drafted鈥攍eaning on a wedge issue it has consistently used to depict the Jordanian state and governments as denying the will of the public.鈥&苍产蝉辫;
But rather than play up its historic ties to Hamas, the IAF and the Brotherhood are framing the war in Gaza and spiraling violence in the West Bank as a threat to Jordan鈥檚 national security and stability.鈥&苍产蝉辫;
In their campaign, the IAF is promoting itself as a 鈥渄efender鈥 and 鈥減rotector鈥 of Jordan, a bulwark against what it cites as a far-right Israeli 鈥减濒辞迟鈥 and 鈥渁ggression鈥 that extends the boundaries of Israel and the Occupied Territories to target Jordan itself.
In stump speeches, are citing far-right settler attacks and forced displacement of Palestinians in the West Bank and the statements and complicity by far-right Israeli cabinet ministers and MKs as proof of a wider, state-sponsored Israeli strategy to push West Bank Palestinians into Jordan. They too are highlighting National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir鈥檚 calls for Jewish prayer and support for building a synagogue on Al Aqsa Mosque/Temple Mount as Israel rips up Jordan鈥檚 and King Abdullah鈥檚 custodianship over Al Aqsa, one of Islam鈥檚 three holy . In their campaign, the IAF is itself as a 鈥渄efender鈥 and 鈥減rotector鈥 of Jordan, a bulwark against what it cites as a far-right Israeli and 鈥渁ggression鈥 that extends the boundaries of Israel and the Occupied Territories to target Jordan itself.
The war in Gaza has breathed new life into the Jordanian Brotherhood by providing an opportunity to square the circle that has long prevented it from widening its base: appeal to Jordanians of Palestinian origin while also appearing as a nationalist Jordanian movement defending the homeland, all the while downplaying its divisive Islamist ideology.
The Islamists are bolstering this nationalist-pro-Palestine hybrid narrative by fielding electoral lists that include candidates from both East and West Bank origins and Christian, Chechen, and Circassian minorities.鈥&苍产蝉辫;
This month鈥檚 results will illustrate how the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, and the threat to Jordan鈥檚 stability, is shaping the kingdom鈥檚 politics.
The views represented in this piece are those of the author and do not express the official position of the 浪花直播 Center.鈥&苍产蝉辫;
浪花直播鈥檚 Middle East Program serves as a crucial resource for the policymaking community and beyond, providing analyses and research that helps inform US foreign policymaking, stimulates public debate, and expands knowledge about issues in the wider Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Read more
