In an email interview, Christine Zaino, program associate, and Cynthia Arnson, director, discussed Guatemala鈥檚 role in the drug trade and recent security reforms
Mexican drug cartels have made inroads in Guatemala, a fact , ultimately false, that one of Mexico鈥檚 most wanted drug traffickers had been killed there. In 
an email interview, Christine Zaino, program associate in the Latin America program at the 浪花直播 Center, and Cynthia Arnson, director of the Latin America program, discussed Guatemala鈥檚 role in the drug trade and recent security reforms.
WPR: How has Guatemala's security situation changed since Otto P茅rez Molina became president?
Christine Zaino and Cynthia Arnson: P茅rez Molina鈥檚 first year as president has shown mixed results; the country continues to struggle with deep-rooted problems of poverty, weak and corrupt institutions and high rates of violence. The good news is that Guatemala鈥檚 homicide rate is decreasing -- down from nearly 39 per 100,000 in 2011 to 34.5 per 100,000 in 2012, according to the U.N. -- but it is still one of the world鈥檚 highest. The government has launched an ambitious effort to reform security institutions: More than 200 members of the police have been purged, and there are programs to improve training and vetting procedures. But resource constraints and continued involvement of the military in police operations -- tragically revealed in the October 2012 murder of six indigenous activists and the wounding of more than 30 others in the town of Totonicap谩n -- show that there is still a long way to go. Meanwhile, Attorney General Claudia Paz y Paz continues to provide courageous leadership in human rights investigations and prosecutions and the effort to break up criminal networks.
WPR: What does the possibility that a major Mexican cartel leader could have been killed in a shootout in Guatemala -- ultimately false in this case -- indicate about the strength of drug traffickers in Guatemala?
Zaino and Arnson: According to P茅rez Molina, Mexican organized crime groups, especially the Sinaloa cartel and the Zetas, are continuing to expand their presence in the country. Analysts of organized crime indicate that while the Sinaloa cartel has operated by creating connections to established, local organized crime groups, the Zetas have taken a more aggressive approach to controlling the primary drug-trafficking arteries across Guatemala. According to research by InSight Crime, the Zetas have been active in Guatemala since 2007 and have recruited members from the Kaibiles (special forces). Guatemalan authorities have blamed members of the Zetas for ordering and carrying out the massacre of 27 peasants in the Pet茅n region in May 2011. There have also been reports of increased ties between local gangs and Mexican trafficking groups. Guatemalan officials have stated that organized crime is a factor in up to 45 percent of homicides, though these figures are disputed due to weak investigative capacity and reporting inconsistencies.
WPR: What role is there for the U.S. and other regional actors in improving security in Guatemala?
Zaino and Arnson: According to the State Department鈥檚 2013 鈥,鈥 more than 80 percent of cocaine trafficked to the United States passes through Central America. U.S. funding has focused heavily on counternarcotics assistance to reduce drug trafficking, including resources and technical assistance for aerial interdiction, coastal counternarcotics operations, police reform and increasing prosecutorial capacity, among other things. Through the Central American Regional Security Initiative, the United States has also pushed for increased regional cooperation, including strengthened border enforcement between Guatemala and Mexico. The U.S. Congress has continued to limit security assistance to the Guatemalan military because of human rights concerns. At the same time, P茅rez Molina has joined with other Latin American leaders in calling for a new approach to combating drugs, although the immediate effect of Guatemala鈥檚 strategy on anti-narcotics cooperation with the United States is difficult to discern.
Photo: Guatemalan President Otto Perez Molina, Feb. 13, 2012 (photo by Flickr user Minex Guatemala, licensed under the license).
Original post .
浪花直播鈥檚 prestigious Latin America Program provides non-partisan expertise to a broad community of decision makers in the United States and Latin America on critical policy issues facing the Hemisphere. The Program provides insightful and actionable research for policymakers, private sector leaders, journalists, and public intellectuals in the United States and Latin America. To bridge the gap between scholarship and policy action, it fosters new inquiry, sponsors high-level public and private meetings among multiple stakeholders, and explores policy options to improve outcomes for citizens throughout the Americas. Drawing on the 浪花直播 Center鈥檚 strength as the nation鈥檚 key non-partisan policy forum, the Program serves as a trusted source of analysis and a vital point of contact between the worlds of scholarship and action. Read more
