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Moscow has lost many allies and partners due to its war against Ukraine. Among the few countries it has grown closer to in the past three years is Azerbaijan, a former Soviet republic and key regional player. However, Russia鈥檚 refusal to fully disclose information and accept responsibility for the December 25, 2024, crash of an Azerbaijani passenger jet is now creating a rift between the two governments. 

Yet, despite the tensions, both sides have too much to lose from a lasting fallout. Russia relies on Azerbaijan for transport routes vital to its relations with Iran and the Persian Gulf, while Baku鈥檚 geopolitical pragmatism and shared strategic interests will likely push both countries toward reconciliation鈥攖hough on terms that reflect Azerbaijan鈥檚 growing assertiveness. Whether they can overcome today鈥檚 strain remains to be seen, but this is a story worth watching. It offers a rare example of a regional power engaging with Moscow from a position of confidence and leverage, all against the backdrop of escalating tensions with other regional players and partners, including Armenia and Georgia.

Baku Raises the Stakes

In a new development following the crash near Aktau, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan is gathering evidence for a potential , likely to be filed at the International Court of Justice, drawing  in 2014. Baku took action immediately after the release of a  by Kazakhstani and international investigators, which confirmed that the plane sustained damage over Russian territory from 鈥渆xternal metal objects,鈥� ruling out bird strikes or technical failures. While the report stops short of identifying the exact source of these objects, photos reveal fuselage punctures consistent with missile shrapnel.

On Thursday, Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry announced that they had sent a diplomatic note to Russia  the activities of Russian House, an umbrella name for Russia鈥檚 official cultural institutions worldwide. This move effectively means shutting down the operations of Rossotrudnichestvo, Russia鈥檚 cultural and humanitarian agency, in Azerbaijan. Russia has officially confirmed receiving Azerbaijan鈥檚 diplomatic note. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists that the situation surrounding the Russian House in Baku may be addressed , potentially at a summit between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev, highlighting the sensitivity of the matter.

The Azerbaijani government  with Russian President Vladimir Putin鈥檚 response to the December 25 tragedy. While Putin issued an apology, he described the crash as a 鈥渢ragic incident鈥� and expressed regret that it occurred in Russian airspace,  any Russian responsibility for downing the aircraft. Subsequent statements from Russian authorities have failed to meet Baku鈥檚 demands for full accountability. Meanwhile, Azerbaijani investigators continue to uncover evidence of Russian involvement, including fragments of a Soviet-era  found among the wreckage.

Baku鈥檚 decision to shut down Russian House signals Azerbaijan鈥檚 willingness to escalate tensions, taking a bolder stance toward Russia than most regional powers would dare. The move reflects growing frustration over what Azerbaijani officials see as Russia鈥檚 pattern of evasion and denial, particularly given Azerbaijan鈥檚 carefully balanced approach to Russia鈥檚 war against Ukraine鈥攐ne that has allowed both sides to engage without fully aligning their positions.

Balancing Between Moscow and the West

Azerbaijan has consistently voiced support for Ukraine鈥檚 sovereignty and territorial integrity, drawing parallels to its own experience with Armenian occupation in Karabakh鈥攁 conflict it recently resolved militarily, with Russia stepping back and withdrawing its peacekeeping forces. Baku has sent humanitarian aid, including medicine and food, and funded medical rehabilitation for Ukrainian children. While avoiding overt realignment, Azerbaijan has deepened its ties with the EU and Turkey, signaling a . At the same time, President Aliyev鈥檚 government has stopped short of labeling Russia an aggressor state and has refused to join Western sanctions against Moscow.

The incident may have a personal dimension, as Aliyev鈥檚 presidential plane was also airborne at the time of the crash. Upon learning about the accident, Aliyev turned his plane around while en route to Moscow for a regional summit. There are reports that his aircraft may have experienced GPS navigation issues.

鈥淥f course, Aliyev expected Putin to call and offer a proper apology. What actually transpired angered him because he sees himself as Putin鈥檚 equal,鈥� said Arif Yunusov from the Institute for Peace and Democracy, an Azerbaijani NGO based in the Netherlands, in an . 鈥淭rump now has the final say. Russia has weakened鈥攍osing Syria was a major blow, and in the East, the weak are not treated with much ceremony. That鈥檚 why Azerbaijani officials are now praising Trump and increasing pressure on Russia.鈥� Azerbaijan鈥檚 leadership has been openly supportive of Trump鈥檚 return to power, viewing it as an opportunity to shift away from what they perceived as the Biden administration's pro-Armenian stance.

Why This Matters

Despite Baku鈥檚 frustration, from the Kremlin鈥檚 perspective issuing any apology was already a significant concession. Putin, however reluctantly, recognized that he could not treat the Azerbaijani leader as he does his European counterparts, whom he often regards with disdain. Typically, Moscow systematically evades accountability through strategic denials and blame-shifting, as seen in its handling of the downing of flight MH17 and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This pattern reflects a deliberate strategy to avoid legal responsibility, financial compensation, and geopolitical concessions.

Moscow and Baku will likely reach an agreement, as both have too much at stake to risk a complete rupture. While mutual suspicion and distrust will persist, the Kremlin relies on Azerbaijan as a key hub for sanctions-free trade through the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which facilitates commerce with . In 2023 alone, Russian oil exports to Azerbaijan . Since the start of Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has also been  to Azerbaijan鈥檚 domestic market, enabling Baku to fulfill and potentially expand its export commitments. 

Azerbaijan and Russia are unlikely to sever ties completely鈥攅conomic interdependence and regional pragmatism will compel them to maintain cooperation. However, the fallout from the crash has exposed deep-seated tensions that will not be easily repaired. Baku鈥檚 willingness to challenge Moscow signals a shift in the regional balance of power, with Azerbaijan asserting itself as a more independent player. Baku is no longer willing to play the role of a deferential junior partner in Russia鈥檚 orbit. This is a key story for foreign policymakers, as it highlights Moscow鈥檚 pressure points and how regional powers are starting to challenge its influence.

The opinions expressed in this article are those solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Kennan Institute.