A blog of the Latin America Program
Q: On February 18, Brazilian prosecutors charged former President Jair Bolsonaro with overseeing an aborted scheme to poison Luiz In谩cio Lula da Silva and retain power despite losing the 2022 election. The charges were not unexpected, and Bolsonaro was already banned from running in 2026. Still, this feels like a big deal, no?
A: The indictments were expected. Still, this is a major development. The former president is facing charges of criminal conspiracy and an attempted coup d鈥櫭﹖at. Politically, this is excellent news for Lula, and for Bolsonaro鈥檚 conservative rivals.
Q: Is Bolsonaro going to be arrested? After all, his former running mate has been in jail since December for his alleged role in the same coup plot.
A: Bolsonaro will not be arrested immediately. Although the Prosecutor General鈥檚 Office has formally charged him, there are several steps before a potential trial. First, Supreme Court Chief Justice Alexandre de Moraes must decide whether to accept the charges and hold a trial. Even if Bolsonaro is convicted, he could appeal. In the meantime, he is likely to remain free.
Q: The details of the alleged conspiracy are terrifying, and the Oscar-nominated 鈥淚鈥檓 Still Here鈥 was a reminder of the role the Brazilian armed forces have played in politics in the past. How sturdy is Brazil鈥檚 democracy?
A: Brazil鈥檚 democracy has proven resilient, but its struggle with military influence is far from over. The military鈥檚 influence became stronger under Bolsonaro, as we saw in the role of senior military leaders in the January 8 attacks. Brazil鈥檚 judiciary has increased accountability, and challenges to the Amnesty Law are gaining traction, promising potential prosecutions of human rights abuses during the dictatorship. Whether these measures will dismantle old power structures is the key question for Brazil鈥檚 democratic future.
Q: Bolsonaro was in office the last time President Trump was in the White House and he has strong ties to US conservatives. Meanwhile, in addition to its pursuit of Bolsonaro, Brazil's powerful Supreme Court has locked horns with Elon Musk. What does all this mean for US-Brazil relations?
A: If Bolsonaro鈥檚 legal troubles escalate and become a focal point for US conservatives, diplomatic strains will follow. More than portraying Bolsonaro as a martyr, framing the Supreme Court chief justice as a villain seems to be the priority for the US president鈥檚 allies, turning Brazil鈥檚 judiciary into a political target.
Author
Latin America Program
浪花直播鈥檚 prestigious Latin America Program provides non-partisan expertise to a broad community of decision makers in the United States and Latin America on critical policy issues facing the Hemisphere. The Program provides insightful and actionable research for policymakers, private sector leaders, journalists, and public intellectuals in the United States and Latin America. To bridge the gap between scholarship and policy action, it fosters new inquiry, sponsors high-level public and private meetings among multiple stakeholders, and explores policy options to improve outcomes for citizens throughout the Americas. Drawing on the 浪花直播 Center鈥檚 strength as the nation鈥檚 key non-partisan policy forum, the Program serves as a trusted source of analysis and a vital point of contact between the worlds of scholarship and action. Read more
Brazil Institute
The Brazil Institute鈥攖he only country-specific policy institution focused on Brazil in Washington鈥攁ims to deepen understanding of Brazil鈥檚 complex landscape and strengthen relations between Brazilian and US institutions across all sectors. Read more
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