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Long-peaceful Ecuador is now South America鈥檚 most violent nation. Fortunately, its citizens still have faith in electoral solutions to the narcotics-driven violence and corruption tearing apart Ecuador鈥檚 social fabric and governing institutions.

Eighty-two percent of eligible voters showed up February 9 to select the 151 members of the unicameral National Assembly and pick a presidential candidate from among 16 options. Most chose either President Daniel Noboa or his leftist opponent, Luisa Gonz谩lez, with each garnering 44% of the vote. Similarly, their political parties attracted 80% of the vote in total, meaning the next president will need the support of ten or so members of other parties to pass legislation. Ecuador鈥檚 April 13 presidential runoff will be a rerun of the October 2023 contest, when the two former one-term Assembly members competed to finish the term of former President Guillermo Lasso.

鈥淓ighty-two percent of eligible voters showed up February 9 to select the 151 members of the unicameral National Assembly and pick a presidential candidate from among 16 options. Most chose either President Daniel Noboa or his leftist opponent, Luisa Gonz谩lez, with each garnering 44% of the vote.鈥� 

Gonz谩lez, 47, is a longtime confidante of Rafael Correa, Ecuador鈥檚 socialist president from 2007 to 2017. Correa is on the lam, after being sentenced to eight years in prison for corruption. But his party, now known as the Revoluci贸n Ciudadana, remains popular, thanks in part to memories of Correa鈥檚 generous social welfare spending made possible by high oil prices and Chinese loans.

Noboa, 37, is the heir to the nation鈥檚 largest banana fortune. But his brief presidency has been defined by the fight against organized crime. As violence reached new terrifying heights within weeks of his November 2023 inauguration, he declared a state of internal armed conflict, classifying 18 narcotics gangs as terrorist organizations and deploying the military to back up the police.

He also took the unpopular steps of raising taxes and reducing subsidies for gasoline, and he was third consecutive president to turn to the International Monetary Fund for support. Meanwhile, an extended drought disrupted hydroelectric plants, leading to monthslong blackouts that at times lasted 12 hours a day. The economy is sluggish and homicide rates are still high. In his campaign, he promises security, law and order, and job creation.

Ecuador鈥檚 fate, however, does not rest only on the results of the presidential election.

The murder of 2023 presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio led Attorney General Diana Salazar to launch a sprawling investigation into organized crime鈥檚 links to Ecuador鈥檚 courts and government. The evidence she collected, and in many cases shared online, included thousands of text messages that demonstrated links between jailed drug traffickers and public officials.

The 鈥淢etastasis鈥� case led to the arrest and prosecution of dozens of judicial, prosecutorial, prison, and police authorities, and implicated close Correa associates. A number of them have fled to Mexico, Cuba, and Venezuela. Last April, Noboa ordered a police raid on Mexico鈥檚 Embassy in Quito to arrest Jorge Glas, Correa鈥檚 longtime vice president, after the Metastasis investigation documented bribes that allowed Glas to leave prison and take refuge in the Mexican Embassy.

鈥淭he 鈥楳etastasis鈥� case led to the arrest and prosecution of dozens of judicial, prosecutorial, prison, and police authorities, and implicated close Correa associates. Now, however, the future of Ecuador鈥檚 fight against corruption is up in the air.鈥�

Now, however, the future of Ecuador鈥檚 fight against corruption is up in the air. Should Gonz谩lez win in April, Correa and his top lieutenants would likely return to the country. Meanwhile, Salazar鈥檚 six-year term ends April 8, days before the presidential runoff. That means the next president will nominate candidates to replace her.

With the nation of 18 million at a crossroads, the policies and priorities of both the next president attorney general will have profound and long-lasting impacts on Ecuador鈥檚 politics, economics, and security. The high turnout this month was a good sign. But should this electoral process frustrate an already impatient public, many might 鈥渧ote with their feet,鈥� exacerbating Ecuador鈥檚 already-high levels of irregular migration.