A blog of the Africa Program
Kenya鈥檚 backing of opposition leader Raila Odinga for AU Commission chair has intensified the 2025 election. With strong pan-African support, he faces stiff competition and big questions over AU reforms, financial woes, and regional divides if he is to successfully elevate Africa鈥檚 influence on the global stage.
The African Union (AU) chairperson election took center stage when the Raila Odinga鈥檚 candidacy in July 2024. The nomination was surprising, as Odinga has long played the role of opposition candidate in Kenya. Most recently, Odinga faced off against President William Ruto in a contentious election that concluded with Odinga claiming election mismanagement and fraudulent vote counting. Since the election, Odinga played a prominent opposition role, leading 鈥渕aandamano鈥 (protests in Swahili) in July 2023 over the high cost of living and the Ruto government鈥檚 economic policies. Negotiations between the Odinga and Ruto camps led to reconciliations and the agreement on Odinga鈥檚 nomination for the AU chairperson position.
Odinga鈥檚 prominent position in East African and pan-African politics has increased the visibility of the AU chairperson elections in February 2025. While he faces competition from , foreign minister of Djibouti, and , former foreign minister of Madagascar, he has quickly racked up endorsements from multiple African countries with geographic representation across the continent. Odinga鈥檚 profile and the immediate visibility he brought to the process begs the question of what he will be able to accomplish if elected.
Since the establishment of the AU from the Organization of African Unity in 2002, the prominence of the AU chairperson position has been elevated with initiatives such as and with the increasingly central role of the organization in continental and global matters. In recent times, the role has become more visible through the AU and African states鈥 progressive inclusion in global forums such as becoming a permanent member of the Group of 20 (G20) in 2023. These forums provide an expanded platform and visibility for the AU chairperson. At the same time, the AU, as an institution, limits the chairperson鈥檚 ability to implement their agenda. The AU has been going through a multiyear reform process since 2016 but still struggles with financing its activities, and member states vary dramatically in political priorities and economic size. To be successful, the AU chairperson will have to seize opportunities presented by the international platforms where the AU has representation and continuously engage its member states while avoiding the institutional pitfalls.
Article 20 of the AU Constitutive Act establishes and defines the as the 鈥淐hief Executive Officer, legal representative of the AU, and the Commission鈥檚 Chief Accounting Officer鈥 in the AU Commission Statutes. Officially, the chairperson , 鈥減opularizing the AU鈥檚 objectives鈥 and 鈥渃oordinating with key stakeholders such as Member States, Development Partners, RECs [Regional Economic Communities], etc.鈥 While this provides a broad framework for the position, the four individuals who have held the role since 2003 have been influential in defining it.
For example, two chairpersons, Alpha Oumar Konar茅 (Mali, 2003鈥08) and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma (South Africa, 2012鈥17), have profoundly impacted the chairperson鈥檚 role. As a former president, Konar茅 leveraged his strong personality and democratic, pan-African credentials to enhance the organization鈥檚 image. Chairperson Dlamini-Zuma, the first to assume the position from one of the continent鈥檚 major powers, championed the drafting and adoption of Agenda 2063. Her tenure significantly raised the office profile and sustained the diplomacy required to secure buy-in for Agenda 2063.
Occupants of the position often face significant challenges, including managing relations with member states, navigating the slow and cumbersome AU Commission bureaucracy, addressing inadequate financing of the Commission鈥檚 activities, and addressing the fallout of an evolving global multilateral landscape on the African continent. Additional challenges that the new leadership will confront include managing the resurgence of member states鈥 selective use of sovereignty in allowing AU鈥檚 involvement in crises within their borders, fostering cooperation between the AU and the United Nations in implementing peace operations and UNSC Resolution 2719, and advancing Africa鈥檚 emerging agency in global multilateral forums, particularly membership of the G20.
The AU Commission leadership election is a multistep process that involves the call for nominations, submission of candidacies by member states, screening of candidates by the Executive Council鈥檚 Committee on Candidature, campaigning, debate among candidates, elections by the Assembly, and finally, announcement and confirmation of elected leaders. Currently, the candidates are set and are campaigning, with a recent debate held between candidates on December 13, 2024. Voting will occur at the 38th AU Summit in February 2025 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Though three candidates are contesting, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf (Djibouti) and Raila Odinga (Kenya) are the front-runners. Over the nomination and campaigning periods, candidates with slim chances of winning have dropped out and thrown their weight behind one of the leading candidates. This regularly results from bilateral deals or a realistic assessment of their chances, aiming to avoid wasting votes. The first instance of this occurred in the early phase of the process, during which Somalia鈥檚 candidate withdrew and supported Kenya鈥檚 Raila Odinga. Anil Gayan, a former minister of Mauritius who had earlier been approved to contend for the position of chair for his country, also dropped out in the latter part of 2024.
Additionally, the nature of domestic political influences could also affect the outcomes. This risk is particularly high for Raila Odinga, whose campaign is robustly supported and funded by his country with direct backing from the presidency. This has created a close connection between his campaign and domestic politics. While perhaps a black swan event, any significant changes in President Ruto鈥檚 presidency could have major implications for Odinga鈥檚 candidacy.
Whoever wins is going to face opportunities and challenges. The ongoing reform process, designed to reduce fragmentation and duplication of efforts, inefficiencies, financial dependence on external partners, and improve coordination between the AU and regional economic communities, has had mixed results. In part, reforms have been ineffective due to a lack of political will from member states and the top-down approach of the reform process, which excluded staff of the Commission. The AU Commission chairperson will have to corral and gain influence with the member states and Commission staff to effect and sustain any meaningful internal change.
Similarly, fundamental to the AU are the continent鈥檚 regional economic communities, many of which are facing their own struggles to gain influence and regional buy-in. The Economic Community of West African States saw three members begin the process of withdrawing in 2024. Another example is the Intergovernmental Authority on Development in East Africa and the Horn of Africa, which is consistently criticized for lacking influence and the ability to mediate the numerous conflicts in its region.
At the same time, there are clear opportunities to lead on a unified agenda through new platforms such as the G20 and the broad rise in Africa鈥檚 agency on the global stage. For example, the G20 and the South African presidency in 2025 provide a clear platform for a unified African voice in one of the most prominent global forums. While the new AU Commission chairperson will come in after South Africa鈥檚 presidency has already started, there will be plenty of opportunities to coordinate and engage other African countries to advance the efficacy of the G20 engagement.
The AU鈥檚 finances are a consistent factor named in discussions of organizational ineffectiveness. However, the passage of Resolution 2719 in December 2023 allows AU-led peace operations to access UN-assessed contributions on a case-by-case basis. This would create more predictable and reliable funding for AU peace missions, a core part of the organization鈥檚 mandate. But the case-by-case nature requires diplomatic efforts with UN Security Council members. How to mobilize member states to contribute to the 25% envelope in deployments will also remain an issue. With calls for more missions in countries such as Sudan, the AU Commission chairperson will have the opportunity to shape what missions can utilize UN-assessed contributions, but it will require delicate diplomacy.
Finally, the African Continental Free Trade Area has made progress but still requires policy reforms and intra-African infrastructure development to realize its potential. The promise of the free trade agreement has captured the attention of the continent鈥檚 business leaders. Still, meeting implementation timelines and addressing emerging challenges requires more political will and activity. The new AU Commission chairperson will have the platform to advance these conversations.
The Africa Program works to address the most critical issues facing Africa and US-Africa relations, build mutually beneficial US-Africa relations, and enhance knowledge and understanding about Africa in the United States. The Program achieves its mission through in-depth research and analyses, public discussion, working groups, and briefings that bring together policymakers, practitioners, and subject matter experts to analyze and offer practical options for tackling key challenges in Africa and in US-Africa relations. Read more
