Germany Post Election: Conservatives and Far-Right Enjoy Electoral Success

Germany’s national election resulted in a victory for Friedrich Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), positioning him to become the next chancellor. The election also saw an unprecedented surge in support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which captured 20.8%, making it the second-largest party. Coalition negotiations will be complex, with potential alliances forming between the CDU, SPD, and the Greens to ensure stability and block the AfD from power.

Robin Quinville, Director of the Global Europe Program, provides an overview of the results and their impact. She covers voter concerns about economic stagnation, migration issues related to the large refugee waves from Syria in 2015 and Ukraine in 2022, and the challenges of coalition-building.

Transcript

This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity.

What people were looking for in this election is to elect a stable German government capable of forming a coalition that would be effective in addressing many of the pocketbook issues that German voters were really concerned about. There was really high dissatisfaction with the state of Germany's economy. It has not really bounced back from the Covid period. Growth has been stagnating. It has not seen the kind of bounce back that other European countries manage after Covid. It's a manufacturing economy. It's essential for Germany to be able to export effectively. And there just has been a sense of overregulation and a pinch in the pocketbook for people who are voting in this election.

Another issue in this election was migration. The after effects of two waves of migration, primarily in 2015 from Syria and in 2022 from Ukraine. Because of these waves and because of the generosity of the German system in providing for these refugees and asylum, there was a sense over time that this was an economic drain. There was a sense by some in Germany that this was somehow unfair to German citizens.

For the parties that are going to form the next coalition. They are determined not to bring the AfD into a coalition government. They have pledged to maintain a firewall against bringing the AfD into government. That limits the choices of parties for the winning conservatives to bring in as a coalition partner. And right now, it looks like that choice will be the Social Democrats, the party of outgoing Chancellor Olaf Schulz. They had a terrible election result in this election. They lost nine points in the in the polls. And the current chancellor, Olaf Schulz, will likely step down from party involvement. And what that means is they will also have to hold a leadership election.

Guest

Robin S. Quinville

Director, Global Europe Program

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Global Europe Program

The Global Europe Program is focused on Europe’s capabilities, and how it engages on critical global issues. We investigate European approaches to critical global issues. We examine Europe’s relations with Russia and Eurasia, China and the Indo-Pacific, the Middle East and Africa. Our initiatives include “Ukraine in Europe”—an examination of what it will take to make Ukraine’s European future a reality. But we also examine the role of NATO, the European Union and the OSCE, Europe’s energy security, transatlantic trade disputes, and challenges to democracy. The Global Europe Program’s staff, scholars-in-residence, and Global Fellows participate in seminars, policy study groups, and international conferences to provide analytical recommendations to policy makers and the media. Read more

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