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Severe flooding in Germany and Belgium in July caused over , highlighting the urgency of the climate crisis. In Latin America, rising temperatures have brought about a very different, but similarly damaging, impact: a disruptive lack of rain.

Central America鈥檚 鈥渄ry corridor鈥� was hit hard in the beginning of this year, suffering the most extreme drought of the , leaving over 1.4 million people in need of food assistance. Low rainfall has also lowered food exports and power generation in Argentina and Paraguay. The situation is dire in neighboring Brazil, which has endured three large-scale droughts over the past decade, an unusually high frequency. The country now faces its worst drought in 91 years, raising fears of shortages of energy and water that could inflate electricity and food prices at a time of already high inflation, and exacerbate forest fires in the Pantanal wetlands and Amazon.

The water levels in many rivers and reservoirs in Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay are worryingly low. The drought is particularly evident in the Paran谩 River, which powers hydroelectric dams providing electricity to much of the region, and serves as a riverine highway for commodity exports, including cash crops like soybeans. The Paran谩 is  below its typical depth, and Argentina and Paraguay have recorded a  in energy production at the Yacyret谩 Binational Dam, which typically  800 MW of electricity for Argentina and 200 MW for Paraguay. The drought is even more problematic for Brazil, which depends on hydropower for approximately  of its electricity generation. Brazilian officials are also worried about water supplies; the reservoirs that supply S茫o Paulo are at the lowest level in the last . In response, the S茫o Paulo state sanitation agency, SABESP, has urged the 21 million residents of greater S茫o Paulo to conserve water.

The shrinking of the Paran谩 is also causing concern for the region鈥檚 lucrative agriculture sector. Argentine farmers use the river to ship  of agricultural exports, and the river鈥檚 low level has reportedly grounded large ships and forced others to reduce dramatically their cargoes. Already, the disruption has cost the country鈥檚 grains industry as much as , according to the Rosario grains exchange. In June, Brazil鈥檚 infrastructure minister  restrictions on shipping on the Paran谩, forcing exporters to divert cargoes to overland routes, raising costs and emissions. The drought has also lowered yields for Brazilian farmers growing corn, coffee, sugarcane and oranges. The yield for the season鈥檚 second corn crop, for example, is expected to hit a, and coffee production in S茫o Paulo state is forecasted to drop by as much as . The timing couldn鈥檛 be worse, as South American governments were hoping rising commodity prices would speed the post-pandemic recovery.

In Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay, drought-related increases in energy and food prices could bring political repercussions. Inflation in Brazil is almost  the central bank target, and inflation in Argentina is soaring towards 50 percent. That could damage President Jair Bolsonaro鈥檚 popularity as Brazil鈥檚 2022 presidential election approaches, and hurt President Alberto Fern谩ndez鈥檚 party in Argentina鈥檚 November midterms.

Leaders are aware of the risks, though there is nothing they can do to make it rain. (The Mexican authorities don鈥檛 see it that way; since June, the Mexican government has been experimenting with .) Forty-three percent of Brazilians expect the drought to increase electricity prices, and there are fears of rationing, according to a poll by . In 2001, after President Fernando Henrique Cardoso imposed energy restrictions during a drought, his party  the next year鈥檚 presidential election. To avoid similar political damage, Bolsonaro has promised not to ration energy; his most significant response so far was a  to create a commission to study hydropower management and water use.

A prolonged drought, however, could require more dramatic action, regardless of the political fallout. It could also draw unfavorable local and international attention to the Brazilian government鈥檚 failure to address deforestation. To clear land, farmers and ranchers burn down trees every year; deforestation rose in June for the compared to last year, as  across the Amazon. The drought raises the risk that these fires, including in the Amazon and Pantanal wetlands, could .

Latin America鈥檚 drought likely has several causes, including shifting local weather patterns caused by Amazon deforestation, and the cyclical climate phenomenon known as 鈥�.鈥� But scientists say climate change is also likely responsible, and the severe impacts are yet more evidence of the dangerous and costly disruptions from warming global temperatures.

For more on climate change in Brazil, listen to the latest episode of

the Brazil Institute Podcast, "."

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Brazil Institute