浪花直播

BY MAXIM TRUDOLYUBOV

Russian prosecutors have moved to shut down Memorial, Russia鈥檚 oldest and most prominent civil society organization. For over thirty years the group has been involved in investigating Soviet political repression and commemorating its victims, defending basic freedoms in today鈥檚 Russia, and providing legal support to modern-day political prisoners.

The reason the Russian state is after Memorial is not just decades-old disagreements over the Soviet historical past and Russia鈥檚 political present but the organization鈥檚 value as a bargaining chip or a pressure point in the Kremlin鈥檚 strategy of conflict with the West.

Moscow鈥檚 Kafkaesque Legality

Should the authorities succeed in shutting the group down, Memorial鈥檚 fate will be a devastating milestone in Russian civil society鈥檚 years-long struggle to keep afloat and alive. 鈥淭he Russian authorities force us to draw ever new parallels between the present day and the era of state terror, the appalling memory of which Memorial has been keeping. The country is on the verge of another historic disaster,鈥� signed by dozens of Russian civil society leaders.

The reasons the authorities adduce to warrant the closure are technical. Memorial stands accused of 鈥渟ystemic鈥� violations of Russia鈥檚 鈥渇oreign agents鈥� legislation. Specifically, this refers to Memorial鈥檚 failure, back in 2019, to mark a number of pages on one of its websites with the foreign agent disclaimer, a requirement under Russian law. The group was fined for those breaches and have paid the fines. A few missing disclaimers cannot be considered grave noncompliance that might lead to an organization鈥檚 closure, Memorial鈥檚 .

Rather than a centralized organization, Memorial is an ecosystem of groups that are active throughout Russia and the world. The two entities that are now being sued as a way to force them to liquidate are the Memorial Human Rights Center, which has decades of experience defending basic human rights in Russia, particularly in Chechnya, and the International Memorial Society, responsible for historical and educational work. The two organizations鈥� cases will be heard on November 23 and 25, respectively.

In a Kafkaesque twist, the prosecutor general鈥檚 office alleges that International Memorial has been in violation of the European Convention on Human Rights, among other international norms. But only sovereign nations, not civil society groups or individuals, have the capacity to comply or not to comply with the European Convention, legal experts .

The lawsuit may be far-fetched legally, but it could be seen as a classic example of the Russian state鈥檚鈥攁nd personally President Putin鈥檚鈥攑enchant for turning the accusations being thrown at them back on the accusers. Memorial with the European Court of Justice a number of complaints claiming that the Russian law on foreign agents itself violates the European Convention on Human Rights. The cases are still pending, but by the time the European Court hears them the plaintiff may no longer exist.

The Kremlin鈥檚 Strategy of Conflict

Political games around Memorial do not end there. The organization is a useful bargaining chip in the Kremlin鈥檚 constant game of asymmetrical responses to various kinds of Western sanctions or other types of pressure, real or imagined.

Russian political strategists may consider Memorial useful in their game not because of its role in Russian society鈥檚 reckoning with the past but because it is Russia鈥檚 best-known civil society group in Europe, primarily in Germany. Historically, Memorial鈥檚 founders had strong ties with Germany, and for decades, German politicians would of meeting with Memorial鈥檚 board members while visiting Moscow.

Predictably, the threat of Memorial鈥檚 liquidation caused a in Germany. Immediately after the news broke, Germany鈥檚 foreign minister Heiko Maas issued a calling the very possibility of the organization鈥檚 shutdown 鈥渟hocking.鈥� German public figures and Russia specialists have published in support of their Russian colleagues from Memorial.

It is rare that European, particularly German, politicians and journalists pay so much attention to the fate of a Russian nongovernmental group. The flow of statements and in Germany and throughout the world in support of Memorial has not stopped since November 11, when prosecutors first declared their intention to close Memorial down. From the Kremlin鈥檚 vantage point, this means an important positional success.

The more visible a figure or an organization is, the greater its value in the Kremlin鈥檚 strategy of conflict. Very often, this game is not about straightforward bargaining, such as in an exchange of spies. For the Russian state鈥檚 current leaders, it is important to inform their opponents that Russia will respond to sanctions and other types of pressure from the West. The Kremlin鈥檚 response, as a rule, cannot be symmetrical as Moscow鈥檚 economic sanctions against the West often hurt Russia itself because the country is an importer of vast numbers of industrial, high-tech, medical, and food products from the West. Russia can manipulate its role as an important oil and gas exporter, but if Moscow wants to keep its clients in today鈥檚 competitive markets.  

Russia may lack economic or political clout to exert influence over its partners and opponents, but the country鈥檚 leaders make up for that by leveraging all kinds of pressure points that may cause at least some pain in the West. In the Kremlin鈥檚 strategy of conflict, anybody (and anything) goes that can raise enough noise and help engage the adversary in a loud public skirmish.

Organizations and people designated as 鈥渇oreign agents鈥� are similar in status to hostages. Last spring, Russia鈥檚 prosecutors of designating the entire network of organizations founded by the Russian opposition leader Aleksei Navalny 鈥渆xtremist鈥� shortly after the United States a wide array of sanctions against Russia for interfering in the U.S. presidential election, cyberhacking, and bullying Ukraine. With this gesture, the Russian leadership shifted part of the responsibility for the fate of Navalny鈥檚 supporters to Western countries. The Kremlin鈥檚 message essentially reads as follows: You exert pressure on us, we exert pressure on your 鈥渁gents鈥� inside Russia.

The numbers of those 鈥渁gents鈥� and thus potential victims of the Russian state . This creates a moral complication for dealing with Russia, which is of course the intended effect of the entire exercise.

The opinions expressed in this article are those solely of the authors and do not reflect the views of the Kennan Institute.