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La Grieta Goes Global

Image / Weekly Asado 12/18/20 cover

Argentina鈥檚 political polarization extends to foreign policy, and these days, the biggest litmus test is the Venezuela crisis.

Over the past decade, Argentina鈥檚 relationship with Venezuela has lurched from brotherhood to enmity and back again. Under Presidents N茅stor Kirchner (2003 to 2007) and Cristina Fern谩ndez de Kirchner (2007 to 2015), the Chavistas and Peronists were close allies. Mr. Kirchner was the first secretary general of the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR), Hugo Ch谩vez鈥檚 go-to alternative to the Organization of American States. Ms. Fern谩ndez de Kirchner awarded Mr. Ch谩vez鈥檚 successor, Nicol谩s Maduro, the Order of the Libertador General San Mart铆n, the country鈥檚 highest honor for a foreign leader.

That relationship, however, did not survive the election of the center-right Mauricio Macri in 2015.

Mr. Macri, a former Buenos Aires mayor, was of the increasingly authoritarian Venezuelan regime. In the Casa Rosada, he became a founding member of the Lima Group, a coalition of countries promoting a democratic transition in Venezuela. In 2018, he called on the International Criminal Court to investigate Mr. Maduro for crimes against humanity, an ongoing inquiry. The next year, Mr. Macri Juan Guaid贸, the opposition head of Venezuela鈥檚 legislature, , after the Venezuelan congress dismissed Mr. Maduro鈥檚 reelection as . Mr. Macri also the residency application process for Venezuelan migrants, and over 200,000 Venezuelan exiles have in Argentina.

For four years, Argentina was one of the fiercest critics of the Venezuelan regime and one of the most reliable partners for the White House. No longer.

Just as President Alberto Fern谩ndez has reversed a range of Mr. Macri鈥檚 domestic policies, he dramatically altered the country鈥檚 approach to Venezuela. In his first months in office, he rescinded his predecessor鈥檚 of Mr. Guiad贸 (and ), diplomatic credentials for Mr. Guaid贸鈥檚 diplomatic personnel and reinstated them for Mr. Maduro鈥檚 envoys, and lifted a travel ban on regime officials. He has consistently to describe Venezuela as a dictatorship, often drawing criticism at home and abroad. (Harvard economist Ricardo Hausmann, who represented Mr. Guaid贸 at the Inter-American Development Bank, Mr. Fern谩ndez, saying, 鈥淚 don鈥檛 understand how an Argentine, knowing the history of Argentina鈥檚 dictatorship, cannot see things as they are.鈥)

Mr. Fern谩ndez鈥檚 approach mirrors the policy in Mexico under President Andr茅s Manuel L贸pez Obrador. The November election of Luis Arce in Bolivia provided Mr. Maduro with another regional ally. At the OAS, Argentina on a December 6 resolution criticizing Venezuela鈥檚 sham legislative elections, and Bolivia and Mexico voted against the resolution. Still, Argentina is out of step with much of the region and many democratic countries worldwide. Its Venezuela policy risks alienating allies at a time when Buenos Aires desperately needs international support, including at the International Monetary Fund.

Pink Tide Nostalgia

Venezuelan migrants in Argentina are hardly admirers of Mr. Maduro, and the opposition often invokes Venezuela when criticizing Peronist statist economic policy. Still, for Mr. Fern谩ndez, the domestic politics of Venezuela are hardly straightforward. Many supporters of Ms. Fern谩ndez de Kirchner, a longtime friend of the late and his , never soured on the regime in Caracas, despite democratic collapse and voluminously documented .

That has forced Mr. Fern谩ndez to meticulously calibrate his Venezuela policy. As president-elect, he to a congratulatory tweet from Mr. Maduro, whom he said shared his commitment to fighting poverty and inequality. But he pointedly reminded the Venezuelan strongman, 鈥la plena vigencia de la democracia es el camino para lograrlo.鈥 In office, Mr. Fern谩ndez has remained in the Lima Group, though Argentina no longer signs the group鈥檚 communiques.

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Mixed Signals

The result is a series of mixed signals on Argentina鈥檚 approach to the hemisphere鈥檚 biggest humanitarian crisis, and a chronic source of in U.S.-Argentina relations.

Indeed, Mr. Fern谩ndez has been walking a tightrope on Venezuela from his first day in office, when , a senior Venezuelan official, attended Mr. Fern谩ndez鈥檚 inauguration, prompting a by Mauricio Claver-Carone, President Donald Trump鈥檚 senior Latin America adviser, who had flown to Buenos Aires for the ceremony. Mr. Fern谩ndez sent a similar signal when he of Mr. Ch谩vez during a videoconference with former Brazilian President Luiz In谩cio Lula da Silva and Mr. Maduro鈥檚 ode to the late Argentine footballer Diego Maradona.

But the return of Peronism has not brought about a complete about-face on Venezuela policy. In July, Argentina the findings and recommendations of a UN report that condemned human rights abuses by the Venezuelan regime and called for free and fair elections. Argentine Foreign Minister Felipe Sol谩 Venezuela as 鈥渁uthoritarian without a doubt.鈥 And an influential ally of the president, Lower House Speaker Sergio Massa, Venezuela 鈥渁 dictatorship.鈥 The criticism upset leftist hardliners in the fractious Peronist coalition, including Argentina鈥檚 ambassador to Russia, Alicia Castro, who in protest.

Under a Microscope

In some ways, Argentina鈥檚 muddled Venezuela policy is par for the course for the diverse Frente de Todos coalition. But the country鈥檚 approach to Venezuela has potentially serious consequences far from the domestic battlegrounds where the debate is taking place.

The Trump administration, despite its warm ties to Mr. Macri, did not seek conflict with Mr. Fern谩ndez. For its part, Argentina dodged confrontation with Washington on issues such as Mr. Trump鈥檚 threat to impose tariffs on Argentine steel and aluminum; Mr. Fern谩ndez鈥檚 support for former Bolivian President Evo Morales; and Argentina鈥檚 opposition to the U.S. nominee to run the Inter-American Development Bank. But privately, the United States reportedly conveyed its disappointment with Argentina鈥檚 Venezuela policy. That disagreement will not go away after January 20, given President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.鈥檚 record as a human rights defender.

For now, Latin America鈥檚 public health and economic crises will likely dominate the U.S. approach to the region. A clash between the United States and Argentina over Venezuela is unlikely in the short term. But Argentina鈥檚 indifference to repression in Venezuela will continue to draw uncomfortable scrutiny in Latin America, Washington and European capitals.

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